PARIS — The French decisively rejected the European Union's proposed new constitution, plunging the bloc into paralysis and putting at least a temporary brake on five decades of movement toward an ever-stronger pan-European government.
The French interior ministry reported that, with 90% of ballots counted, 56% of voters had voted "no." The strong voter turnout — estimated at around 70% of eligible voters — capped an intense three-month debate over the charter and the future of France and Europe.
The landslide rejection of the constitution by France is likely to break decades of momentum toward closer political and economic integration in Europe. That's because France is the intellectual founder of the union, with Germany its leading architect for the past 50 years.
The "no" is likely to be a death blow to the charter, since the document requires unanimous approval by EU countries, and EU officials have said there is no backup plan in the event one member spurns it.
The rejection will have other immediate consequences, ranging from prompting a likely cabinet shuffle in Paris and undermining the EU's common foreign policy, to slowing economic reforms sought by business leaders and casting a shadow over the EU aspirations of candidate member Turkey.
In a televised address late Sunday, French President Jacques Chirac suggested he would change his cabinet in coming days. Interior Minister Dominique de Villepin, who made his name two years ago by leading France's diplomatic campaign against the U.S.-led war in Iraq, is likely to succeed the deeply unpopular Jean-Pierre Raffarin as prime minister.
The charter's rejection is a bitter personal defeat for Mr. Chirac, who was a staunch supporter of the constitution. While saying he respected the French voters' decision, Mr. Chirac said France's rejection of the document "inevitably creates a difficult context for the defense of our interests within Europe."
The 300-page constitution is meant to help improve the EU's governance and its global clout. The EU last year welcomed 10 new member states, creating a 25-nation behemoth of 458 million people. That colossal size, some European leaders say, makes the union's existing structure increasingly unworkable. The charter proposes an EU-style bill of rights, a pan-European foreign minister and the elimination of national vetoes over key areas such as asylum and immigration.
The French voted "no" for many reasons, including worries that France would lose jobs to countries with lower wages and taxes and that it would be forced to make its social model more liberal. They also feared France would lose influence and power to Brussels.
Some voters thought the constitution document was too complicated and needed to be revised.
EU leaders tried to put a brave face on the French rejection, saying the rest of the bloc would press ahead with the ratification process. European Commission President José Manuel Barroso said nine countries had voted representing almost half of EU voters, and therefore the ratification process should go on.
Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, whose country holds the EU's six-month rotating presidency, also called for the ratification to press on. "The European process does not come to a halt today," he said. "The treaty is not dead, but it has not been able to demonstrate its full strength."
But EU officials admitted privately that it will be difficult to resuscitate what many regard as an arcane charter that will never capture the public imagination. EU leaders have until November 2006 to decide what to do, but will likely discuss next steps at a June 16 summit in Brussels. One option is for French leaders to hold another referendum in hopes of winning a rematch, though French officials remain divided over whether this would be advisable.
Meanwhile, the charter faces deep opposition in the Netherlands, which votes on Wednesday and where the latest polls indicate a majority of voters oppose the document. Britain and the Czech Republic, which also are expected to have referendums on the charter next year, also have vociferous anti-constitution camps.
A "no" vote is unlikely to break up the European Union's 12-country common-currency regime. But by calling into question the future cohesiveness of the union, the "no" will likely add to the Continent's economic malaise. Any further undermining of confidence could weigh on stock prices and on the euro itself, which has been weakening in recent weeks, in part over anxiety at a French "no."
In early Asian trading Monday, after French results were announced, the euro fell to $1.2527 from $1.2573 in New York.
Economists said that, in the short term, a weaker euro could give a lift to stagnating European economies in the euro zone, where the currency's strength has stunted growth in recent years by making European exports more expensive. But they cautioned that these benefits would be more than offset by the negative impact that political instability was likely to bring. Analysts noted the most successful currencies in the long term have strong political backing and that a "no" would undermine confidence.
Longer term, business leaders said a French rejection and consequences such as a weaker euro would make Europe a less attractive place to do business.
"It would weaken the European economy and make us reinforce our bet on the U.S. and look more to Asia," said Paul Hermelin, chief executive of Cap Gemini SA, Europe's largest consulting firm. "It doesn't increase our optimism for European [economic] growth."
A number of observers cautioned, however, that the EU is adept at dealing with internal crises, and that the euro is so well integrated into the world monetary system that its future isn't at risk. "We do not believe that economic integration in Europe will grind to a halt on a "non" vote, said Jörg Krämer, chief economist at HVB Bank in Germany, in a research note, pointing to the successful launch of the euro after the Danes voted down the treaty proposing its launch in 1992.
Still, the "non" will exact a cost. It is likely to help stall economic change in Germany, France and Italy by emboldening unions and other forces that oppose welfare-state reform in those countries out of fear the EU risks becoming an U.S.-style free-for-all. They have been among the constitution's biggest critics.
The French "no" will bring into sharp relief a divergence between countries led by the U.K., which espouse a more free-market Europe, and those led by France, which view social protection for workers as sacrosanct. The rejection threatens to undermine the ambitious liberal agenda of the European Commission, the EU's executive body. The commission is trying to open Europe's services market to cross-border trade, but will be distracted by the ratification crisis.
Meanwhile, as Mr. Chirac himself repeatedly warned during the campaign, France risks finding itself isolated if a majority of EU countries back the document. "The EU will go into resuscitation mode, France could find itself sidelined, and it will be impossible to get anything substantive done," one commission official said. "We might as well all go on holiday for a while."
Simon O'Connor, a consultant at the Centre, a Brussels-based political consultancy, added a "no" would undermine the EU's foreign policy, making the EU a less-effective partner for the U.S. and circumscribing its ability to act on the global stage. "It'll make everything harder, from admitting new countries into the bloc to developing a coherent economic policy. The EU will find it hard to speak with one voice when it is distracted with a salvaging effort that could drag on for years," Mr. O'Connor said.
Political analysts said the "non" vote was a slap-in-the-face for French President Chirac and will likely dash any hopes he might have had of winning a third term as President in 2007. The French "no" vote effectively turns Mr. Chirac "into a lame-duck president," said Daniel Keohane, senior research fellow at the London-based Centre for European Reform, a think-tank.
French pundits have widely predicted a "no" vote would clear the way for a presidential run by Mr. Chirac's rival, Nicolas Sarkozy, a former finance minister who is now leader of Mr. Chirac's center-right party. Mr. Sarkozy has sought to position himself as the successor to Mr. Chirac. He appeared to launch a presidential bid Sunday night, appearing seconds after Mr. Chirac on television to call for "profound changes" and "a major turnaround" of France's economic policy.
Mr. Sarkozy is considered more of a free-market exponent than Mr. Chirac, but it is unclear what his ascent might mean for the key question of whether France and the EU cleave to a free-market or protectionist economic model.
He brokered a €2 billion state bailout of flailing French engineering group Alstom SA. But he also has opposed France's short 35-hour workweek as too inflexible for businesses, earning him kudos from the corporate community.
The rejection of the charter also could have serious consequences for Turkey's EU entry talks, which are meant to begin in early October. Fears about admitting the large Muslim nation into the bloc of Christian countries helped spur the "no" vote in France, analysts say, making it politically impossible for Mr. Chirac to ignore anti-Turkey sentiment now.
Mr. Sarkozy also is deeply skeptical of allowing Turkey in. He could join forces with German conservative leader Angela Merkel, who opposes full membership for Turkey and is widely expected to challenge Chancellor Gerhard Schröder in early elections this September.
The EU decision to start membership talks with Turkey has already been made, and a new government in Berlin would have difficulty reversing it. But the potential ascent of Turkey skeptics in the EU's two most important countries could make the negotiations process tortuous and open-ended.
"Turkey has been an important factor in the 'no' vote and the rejection of the treaty will damage Turkey's EU prospects, potentially even delaying the beginning of EU entry talks," said Mr. Keohane of the Centre for European Reform.
—Pierre Briancon and Cassell Bryan-Low contributed to this article.
Are Europeans ready to take the next step toward EU integration?
The European Union constitution was signed in Rome last October by the leaders of the 25 EU member states. It took EU governments, legislators and others 28 months to negotiate. The charter is meant to streamline decision-making through fairer voting rules and raise the EU's profile globally. It will also create an EU president and EU foreign minister. The constitution must now be ratified by all 25 countries either in a referendum or a parliamentary vote.
With nine countries having ratified the charter so far, France seized the spotlight when voters rejected the proposed constitution on May 29. French President Jacques Chirac urged citizens not to turn their backs on EU integration, a process that France helped to set in motion decades ago. Mr. Chirac said a "no" vote would halt Europe's development as a unified power and also harm France's role in world affairs. Sunday, Mr. Chirac conceded defeat in a bitterly contested referendum.
In Germany, the government completed the charter's ratification by Parliament on May 27, two days before the French vote. In Britain, Prime Minister Tony Blair says the new constitution, which preserves Britain's veto on taxation and foreign and defense policy, is a good deal. A "no" vote by the U.K. wouldn't necessarily mean the end of the constitution. It could still go into effect, but not having the support of all 25 nations would deal a heavy blow to the EU's credibility in forming common policies and could plunge the EU into a period of doubt and increased conflict. (See related article.)
Here is a look at where things stand in the 25 EU countries.
DATE OF VOTE OUTCOME NOTES (P=parliamentary; R=referendum) Austria May 11, 2005 (P) Ratified - Belgium TBD Expected to pass Almost half of Belgians — 49% — would vote in favor of the constitution if a referendum were held, while only 12% would vote against, a poll published in the daily Le Soir on May 9 showed. About 29% of people were undecided, while 10% said they wouldn't vote. Cyprus TBD - - Czech Republic TBD Expected to pass Sixty-two percent of Czechs want a referendum to be held on the constitution, while around 58% would vote in favor of the charter if a national vote was held, according to an opinion poll published May 16. Denmark Sept. 27, 2005 (R) Expected to pass A majority of Danes say they will most likely vote for a proposed European Union constitution in a Sept. 27 referendum, according to a poll published May 22. Estonia TBD - - Finland TBD - - France May 29, 2005 (R) Rejected The French decisively rejected the European Union's proposed new constitution. Government results indicated that the "no" vote led by a margin of 56% to 44%. Germany May 27, 2005 (P) Ratified - Greece April 18, 2005 (P) Ratified - Hungary Dec. 20, 2004 (P) Ratified - Ireland TBD - - Italy April 7, 2005 (P) Ratified - Latvia TBD Expected to pass The Saeima, parliament, expects to ratify the constitution after a final reading on May 27. The parliament delayed a ratification vote in January after finding hundreds of mistakes in the Latvian translation of the document. Lithuania Nov. 11, 2004 (P) Ratified - Luxembourg July 10, 2005 (R) Expected to pass - Malta TBD - - Netherlands June 1, 2005 (R) On the fence Pollster Maurice de Hond said on May 9 that 42% of all voters plan to oppose the constitution in a national referendum June 1, up from 40% a week ago, while 37% will vote in favor, down from 38% a week ago, when the government launched a campaign promoting it. Poland TBD - - Portugal TBD - - Slovakia May 11, 2005 (P) Ratified Lawmakers across the political spectrum voted 116 to 27 to approve the charter with four abstentions, giving strong support for the EU document from the new EU member. Slovenia Feb. 1, 2005 (P) Ratified - Spain April 28, 2005* Ratified - Sweden TBD - - United Kingdom TBD - -
*Spain held a referendum on Feb. 20, 2005, and its result was confirmed in the parliamentary vote in April.Source: The Associated Press; Dow Jones Newswires; European Union
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