Demand for Workers Sets 25-Year High For 1st Quarter, Manpower Survey Finds

DAN MORSE / WALL STREET JOURNAL 20nov00

Demand for workers set a 25-year high for the third consecutive quarter, but it is no longer cutting across all business sectors, according to Manpower Inc.'s latest survey of employers' hiring plans.

"Now we're starting to see softening, particularly in manufacturing" in certain regions, said Jeffrey A. Joerres, president and chief executive officer of Manpower, the Milwaukee-based staffing company that has conducted the quarterly studies for 25 years. Particularly soft, he said, were hiring expectations at Midwest durable-goods manufacturers, where staffing needs for the first quarter 2001 are expected to be their lowest in seven years.

The Manpower survey, expected to be released Monday, is closely watched because of the large number of businesses polled. For the coming quarter, Manpower surveyed 16,000 business firms.

The first quarter is typically the slowest hiring time of the year. In retail, for instance, stores shed holiday workers. Cold weather slows construction work and hiring.

That said, hiring plans for the coming period are the highest first-quarter numbers ever tallied. Overall, 27% of business firms expected further hiring, up from 24% a year earlier. Only 10% planned to trim staff levels, the same as last year's first quarter.

Retail is up sharply. One reason, Mr. Joerres says, is stores have learned they can't simply turn the hiring spigot on and off. Employers who do so lose visibility, and hiring skills. "It's just too tight of a labor market to do that," Mr. Joerres said. So, in the wholesale and retail trades sector, only 16% of firms said they would trim, while 27% expected to hire.

The results follow record-setting hiring plans for the third and fourth quarters of this year. For the third quarter, 35% of firms expected further hiring, while 5% expected a decrease. For the fourth quarter, 32% expected an increase, while 7% expected a decrease.

The survey was conducted prior to Election Day, but Manpower said presidential picks in years past haven't affected hiring plans. Over the past 25 years, the worst overall first quarter for workers was 1982, when only 15% of respondents planned to hire, while 18% planned to trim.