State Gets Political Clout From Census

California, neighbors gaining House seats

Erin McCormick, Louis Freedberg, SF Chronicle 29dec00

The United States may be shifting rightward when it comes to political leadership, but geographically, the nation's population is moving steadily to the left … away from the Northeast's industrial belt and toward the sun- drenched states of the Southwest.

Much-anticipated state population figures released yesterday by the U.S. Census Bureau offer the first glimpse into the findings of the 2000 census, a huge drive to count and categorize every person in the nation.

The figures officially set the population of the United States at 281,421, 906. They revealed an increase of 33 million people in the nation -- a gain of 13.2 percent -- since the last census, in 1990, compared to an increase of only 9.8 percent between 1980 and 1990.

In a shift that brings increased political clout to California and its neighbors, the new count shows that western and southern states such as Arizona, Nevada and Texas are continuing to grow much more rapidly than their northeastern counterparts, such as Pennsylvania and Connecticut.

"It's like someone tipped the whole country, and everyone is sliding west," said San Francisco State University political scientist Rich DeLeon.

Under the Constitution, the census counts are used to determine how congressional seats will be divided among the states.

The new numbers mean that California, which grew slightly faster than the nation, at 13.8 percent, will gain one seat in the House of Representatives, while the fastest-growing states -- Arizona, Texas, Florida and Georgia -- each get two additional seats.

Meanwhile, under the complicated formula used to distribute seats, slower- growing New York and Pennsylvania each lost two representatives in Congress.

Many of the Sun Belt states that gained seats, including Arizona and Texas, are traditionally Republican strongholds, which could give the GOP an extra leg up in the next congressional cycle.

GROWING LATINO POPULATION

But Democrats argued that, with the Southwest's growing Latino population, that dynamic may be changing. (The census information on the nation's racial breakdowns won't be released until spring.)

"It's been the conventional wisdom for the last 20 years that, when states in the South or the Sun Belt pick up seats, it helps the Republicans," said Bob Mulholland, an adviser to the California Democratic Party. "But that may be changing."

The only part of the country that experienced an actual decline in population was the District of Columbia, whose population dropped by 5.7 percent.

California's population jumped by 4,111,627 to 33,871,648, by far the biggest increase of any state. But that figure belies the fact that California's population is growing at a far lower rate than it did between 1980 and 1990, when it grew a record 25.7 percent. Sixteen other states grew by larger percentages than California since 1990.

"I thought the growth was phenomenal, when you consider the recession California had in the early '90s," said Linda Gage, who heads the demographics unit for the state Department of Finance. "We lost hundreds of thousands of people to other states (due to lack of jobs and a flat economy.)"

Yet, while Gage and other state officials were pleased that California gained a congressional seat in the count, they were worried about those whom the count may have missed.

California Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, a member of the U.S. Census Monitoring Board, said he is concerned the numbers are not yet perfect.

"Even with the Census Bureau's best efforts, history shows that people in urban areas are likely to be undercounted at a disproportionately high rate," Bustamante said.

After the 1990 census, Gage said, the Census Bureau estimated that it undercounted California's population by 838,000. She said a high percentage of those missed in the count were minorities and children.

If the undercount were the same this time, as many as a million Californians might go uncounted, Gage said.

Because many types of federal funding are disbursed based on a state's population, studies have shown the California undercount could cost the state up to $5 billion, Gage said.

"In 1990, we were the most undercounted state in the nation," she said. "That means our money went to other states."

The census confirmed that California's loss is other states' gain. "People move in and people move out, and a lot of people moved from California into other western states, nothing more complicated than that," said Kenneth Prewitt, director of the Census Bureau.

In fact, the two states that grew far faster than any others in the nation are states immediately adjoining California.

Nevada's population jumped by an astonishing 66 percent, while Arizona's rose 40 percent. Nevada's population grew by 796,424 people over the past decade, to a total of 1,998,257. Arizona now has a population of 2,673,400.

Other western states also showed huge population increases, at least in percentage terms. Idaho grew 28.5 percent, Utah 29.6 percent and Colorado 30.6 percent.

The census measured how many people were in the United States on April 1 this year. The figures released yesterday are based on actual counts, rather than using sampling techniques that had been bitterly opposed by congressional Republicans.

Over the next few weeks, the census will examine the results of a sample of 314,000 households surveyed individually by census workers, and may adjust the figures it released today.

The question of whether to include that statistical adjustment in the nation's formulas for funding programs has already become a subject of contentious political debate.

Prewitt acknowledged there is no way to say that even the figures released yesterday are absolutely accurate.

"Every large statistical operation has uncertainty attached to it," he said.

"You can't have an exact number for something as complicated as the population of the United States."

E-mail Erin McCormick at emccormick@sfchronicle.com  and Louis Freedberg at lfreedberg@sfchronicle.com .

   A GROWING POPULATION
   There are about 281.4 million people in the United States, a 13 percent 
increase from 1990, according to the 2000 Census. All states gained in 
population but the District of Columbia's population decreased by 5.7 percent. 
Here are the percent changes in population since 1990.
.
Nev.       66.3%
Ariz.      40.0
Colo.      30.6
Utah       29.6
Idaho      28.5
Ga.        26.4
Fla.       23.5
Texas      22.8
N.C.       21.4 
Wash.      21.1
Ore.       20.4
N.M.       20.1
Del.       17.6
Tenn.      16.7
S.C.       15.1
Va.        14.4
Alaska     14.0
Calif.     13.8
Ark.       13.7
Mont.      12.9
Minn.      12.4
N.H.       11.4
Md.        10.8
Miss.      10.5
Ala.       10.1
Ind.        9.7
Ky.         9.7
Okla.       9.7
Wis.        9.6
Hawaii      9.3
Mo.         9.3
N.J.        8.9
Wyo.        8.9
Ill.        8.6
Kan.        8.5
S.D.        8.5
Neb.        8.4
Vt.         8.2
Mich.       6.9
La.         5.9
N.Y.        5.5
Mass.       5.5
Iowa        5.4
Ohio        4.7
R.I.        4.5
Maine       3.8
Conn.       3.6
Pa.         3.4
W.Va.       0.8
N.D.        0.5
.
   California's Growth
   Population figures through the years, and the number of congressional 
representatives for California, according to the U.S. Census Bureau: 
.
Year      Resident Pop. No. of Rep. 
2000       33,871,648      53
1990       29,760,021      52
1980       23,667,764      45
1970       19,971,069      43
1960       15,717,204      38
1950       10,586,223      30
1940        6,907,387      23
1930        5,677,251      20 
1920        3,426,861      11
1910        2,377,549      11
1900        1,485,053       8
1890        1,213,398       7
1880          864,694       6
1870          560,247       4
1860          379,994       3
1850           92,597       2
.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Associated Press Graphic
-----------------------------------------------------
CHART (2):
 GAINS AND LOSSES IN THE HOUSE
.

-- WINNERS        Seats gained New Total
Arizona                2         8
California             1        53
Colorado               1         7
Florida                2        25
Georgia                2        13
Nevada                 1         3
North Carolina         1        13
Texas                  2        32

.
-- LOSERS         Seats lost  New total
Connecticut            1         5
Illinois               1        19
Indiana                1         9
Michigan               1        15
Mississippi            1         4 
New York               2        29 
Ohio                   1        18
Oklahoma               1         5
Pennsylvania           2        19
Wisconsin              1         8
.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Associated Press Graphic
EC: