A Skeptical Public Greets
State of the Union Speech

Survey Shows
Bush Has Little Leeway For 
Big Policy Moves 

JOHN HARWOOD / Wall Street Journal 23jan2007

WASHINGTON — President Bush on Tuesday night gets another shot at persuading Americans to support his Iraq war strategy and domestic agenda. His problem: Much of the public has stopped listening.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll on the eve of Mr. Bush's State of the Union address underscores the extent to which he has lost the nation's ear. Just 22% of Americans say they want the president to set policy for the country, while 57% want Congress to do so. Two-thirds say his performance in office is unlikely to get better in his last two years as president.

"What he faces is an extremely skeptical audience," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who helps conduct the Journal/NBC poll. The findings, adds his Republican counterpart Bill McInturff, suggest "little capacity for movement on his major policy initiatives, especially Iraq."

This month Mr. Bush spoke to the nation outlining plans to increase U.S. troop strength in Iraq, and the poll shows he failed to shift public opinion in his direction. An obvious reason: by 65% to 27%, Americans say the U.S. will eventually have to leave Iraq without a stable democratic government anyway.

"America has come to a public judgment on Iraq: Wrap it up," observes Mr. Hart. The telephone survey of 1,007 adults was conducted Jan. 17-20 and has a margin for error of 3.1 percentage points.

The president — despite an overall approval rating standing at just 35%, while 60% disapprove — has offered no indication of bending to that judgment. To the contrary, he has reiterated his intention to proceed in the face of opposition not only from Democrats, now the majority in Congress, but from an increasing number of his fellow Republicans.

The survey shows Mr. Bush and his Republican allies on solid ground with rank-and-file Americans on at least one point: opposition to any legislative blocking of funds for U.S. troops in Iraq.

So while a 65% majority of Americans say the president should abandon his planned troop increase if Congress passes a nonbinding resolution against it, Americans oppose by 52%-41% congressional attempts to stop Mr. Bush by cutting off funds. Democratic lawmakers have been juggling that potentially volatile issue: Leaders insist they won't stop funding troops in the field, but some senators and House members seek restrictions such as caps on the number of troops in Iraq.

Both Journal/NBC pollsters say Mr. Bush may be able to improve his standing by accommodating his reduced stature and the loss of his Republican congressional majorities with a revamped policy agenda. To some degree, the White House has signaled plans to attempt just that.

Auto industry analysts say they expect Mr. Bush to push for higher fuel-efficiency standards for passenger cars and possibly for efficiency credits that manufacturers could trade. Current rules require a manufacturer's fleet of cars to achieve an average of 27.5 miles a gallon (about 8.6 liters per 100 kilometers). The administration has called in the past for different mileage standards for different classes of cars.

January 2007                                                                                        
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Interviews: 1,007 adults 
Dates: January 17 -20, 200
FINAL
48 Male 
52 Female
[109]

Please note: al results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated.
The margin of error for 1,007 interviews is ± 3.1%
Unless otherwise noted by a “+”, al previous data shown reflects responses among al adults.

4. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing as president?
                                                                       High    Low
                               10/28-    10/13 -    9/30-     9/8-
               1/07   12/06    30/06+    16/06+    10/2/06+   11/06+   11/01   12/06
Approve        35     34       39        38        39         42       88      34
Disapprove     60     61       57        57        56         53        7      61
  Not sure      5      5        4         5         5          5        5       5

               	      7/06     6/06      4/06      3/06       1/06     2/05    11/05
               	      39       37        36        37         39       39      38
               	      56       58        57        58         54       55      57
               	       5        5         7         5          7        6       5

              	      10/05     9/05     7/05      5/05       4/05     2/05    1/05
              	      39        40       46        47         48       50      50
                      54        55       49        47         46       45      44
                       7         5        5         6          6        5       6

              	      12/04     10/04 +  9/04+     8/04+      7/04+    6/04+   5/04+
              	      49        49       47        47         48       45      47
                      44        47       48        48         46       49      46
                       7         4        5         5          6        6       7

 		      3/04      1/04     12/14/03  12/13/03   11/03    9/03    7/03
                      50        54       58        52         51       49      56
                      46        41       34        41         44       45      38
                       5         6        9         7          5        6      6

                                                                               3/29-
                      5/03+     4/03     30/03      3/23/03   3/17/03   2/031  1/03
                      62        71       66         67        62        61     54
                      31        23       29         28        33        31     40
                       7         6        5          5         5         8      6

                    10/02 +     9/02     7/02       6/02      5/02      4/02    4/01
                    63          64       67         69        75        74      57
                    31          30       27         23        18        20      22
                     6           6        6          8         7         6      21


1 Overnight poll conducted after Colin Powell’s speech to the United Nations. 
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters