'Black August' In Iraq 

MARTIN SIEFF / UPI 16aug2005

Washington — It is "Black August" for American soldiers in Iraq. Devastating improvements in shaped charges and multiple-piled mines used by Sunni Muslim insurgents there have enabled them to inflict massive casualties on U.S. forces.

According to the Iraq Index Project of the Brookings Institution, from Aug. 3 through Aug. 10, 44 U.S. soldiers were killed in Iraq in the first 10 days of August alone, compared with 28 killed the week of July 28 through Aug. 3.

As the Washington Post noted Sunday, that made the week of Aug. 3-Aug. 10 "the fourth worst week of the whole war for U.S. military deaths in combat and for August already ... the worst month for deaths of the National Guard and Reserve. [U.S. Lowers Sights On What Can Be Achieved in Iraq - Washington Post 14aug2005]

This current week, the figures will also be bad. On Sunday alone, the Department of Defense announced the deaths in combat of another five U.S. soldiers on Saturday and Sunday,

If the Iraqi insurgents succeed in maintaining their kill rate of U.S. troops for the rest of this month, August could see more than 130 U.S. troops killed, the worst death toll per month there since last November. In July, which seemed to be a bad enough month at the time, 54 U.S. soldiers were killed in Iraq, according to Department of Defense figures.

The number of U.S. troops wounded in action from the beginning of hostilities on March 19, 2003, through Wednesday, Aug.10 was 13,877, an increase of 108 on the previous week, the IIP said. This figure was remarkably close to the figure of 112 for the previous week of July 28 to Aug. 3, and this in turn suggested that despite the dramatically increased death toll of U.S. troops, the insurgency was reporting in its attacks against U.S. forces across Iraq at about the same level.

But this remained cold comfort as the increased lethality of attacks through the first third of August strongly indicated that the insurgents are now capable of producing much more complex and lethal improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, capable of inflicting far more fatalities on U.S. forces.

The main cause for this rise in lethal expertise, U.S. military analysts believe, is training given to the Sunni Muslim insurgents by veteran bomb-makers from the Shiite Hezbollah, or Party of God, in Southern Lebanon that has been strongly supported over the past quarter century by Syria and most of all by Iran.

The number of U.S. troops wounded over the week of Aug. 3 - Aug. 10 was 108, the IIP said. This remained far below the figure of 293 U.S. soldiers wounded from July 6 to July 13, but still above the grim average of over 100 U.S. soldiers injured per week, many of them losing limbs or suffering other permanent disabilities. It clearly indicated that the insurgency was continuing to run at the same serious levels as it has in recent weeks with no reduction in sight.

There was a little evidence to suggest that the insurgents diverting some of their resources and expertise from their devastating ongoing assaults on the new Iraqi security forces to target U.S. troops instead so far this month.

From Aug. 3 to Aug. 10, the IIP reported that 56 Iraqi police and soldiers were killed bin insurgent attacks, a still devastating figure, but significantly lower than the 80 killed the previous week of July 28 through Aug. 3. Nevertheless, the figure was still higher than the 52 killed during the previous week of July 20-27. That brought the total number of Iraqi police and military killed from June 1, 2003 to Wednesday of this week to 2,853 according to the IIP figures.

Through the first 10 days of August, 80 Iraqi police and soldiers were killed by insurgents, the IIP said -- an average of eight per day. If maintained through the rest of this month, this figure projects a death toll of 248 killed for the entire month of August.

Bad as this figure would be, it would still be 20 percent better than the 304 killed in July or the 296 killed in June. But it still points to a nationwide insurgency inflicting casualties severe and consistent enough to render any national army or police force ineffective in such circumstances.

The figures for the first 10 days of August also confirm that the numbers of Iraqi police and military whom the insurgents are managing to kill per month has been rising since January when it totaled "only" 103. (There was a marginal improvement in April compared with March, but so minimal as to be statistically insignificant. In all, 199 Iraqi security force members were killed in April compared with 200 the previous month according to the IIP figures.)

Apart from that minor fluctuation, this casualty figure has risen remorselessly upward over the past six months and still shows no signs at all of leveling off. In July, almost three times as many Iraqi security troops were killed as in January and February.

This also contrasts with a monthly average of only 65 Iraqi security force members killed per week from April 1, 2003 through Dec. 31, 2004 according to the IIP. Currently, the vastly expanded Iraqi security forces are being killed at a rate four-and-a-half times greater per month than they were then.

It should be added that broad economic statistics confirm the devastating impact the worsening insurgency has had on Iraq's economic recovery. As the Washington Post again noted Sunday, "Oil production is estimated at 2.22 million barrels a day, short of the goal of 2.5 million. Iraq's pre-war high was 2.67 million barrels a day.

This figure is especially devastating as Iraq has the second-largest proven oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia. Bush administration senior officials genuinely believed that within a few months of the U.S.-dominated invasion to topple President Saddam Hussein in March 2003, Iraqi oil production would be spectacularly on line and would bring global oil prices down to around $20 a barrel. Instead, last week they hit an all time record high of $65 a barrel.

The most hopeful construction to put on U.S. casualty figures for August so far is that the insurgents just got lucky. It would be far more ominous if it wasn't luck.

source: http://www.spacewar.com/news/iraq-05zt.html 16aug2005

Bush Has A Strategy for Iraq

. . . but isn't sharing it with his military commanders

UPI 5aug2005

Washington DC — "I have a strategy for success in Iraq," said President Bush, speaking to the American Legislative Exchange Council in Grapevine, Texas, Wednesday. That is good news. We could use a good strategy in Iraq right about now. The bad news, however, is if such a strategy exists, the president does not seem to be sharing it with anyone else, least of all with his military commanders.

"On one hand, we've got a military strategy," said the president. "...We'll continue to hunt down the terrorists." The president's remarks came as the U.S. Marines suffered 21 fatalities in just three days in Iraq.

Fourteen Marines and their civilian translator were killed in a single massive roadside bomb that exploded as they rode by in their armored vehicle. The bomb that killed the Marines was larger than usual, meant to rip right through additional armor protection U.S. forces have been adding to their combat vehicles. However, in this case, reports from the area say the Marines were traveling in a lightly armored personnel carrier.

The attack in Haditha, in western Iraq Wednesday, was one of the deadliest single attacks on U.S. forces since the invasion of Iraq began in 2003. It was claimed by the Army of Ansar al-Sunna, (Defenders of Tradition) via a statement issued on the Internet. Ansar al-Sunna emerged from Ansar al-Islam (Defenders of Islam), a group with ties to Iran, and whom officials in the Bush administration have linked to al-Qaida.

"The mujahedin chose the biggest vehicle, the one carrying the most troops, and detonated the devices, causing a massive explosion..." the statement read.

The makeshift explosive device was the largest U.S. forces have encountered to date in western Iraq, said a Marine official who spoke to the Los Angeles Times on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the ongoing operations.

What is becoming particularly disturbing is that the insurgency is adapting and learning very quickly from ever-changing tactics on the ground, adjusting to the demands of the battlefield.

"The insurgents are getting better with every battle, with every attack," a European intelligence source told United Press International. "But to change the ways of an army takes years, if not decades," said the source, speaking on condition his name not be mentioned.

"In this instance, time is not working for us, it is working for them, for the insurgents. This can be a big problem," said the intelligence officer.

The Bush administration is not alone in thinking Iran is backing Islamist groups in Iraq, such as Ansar al-Sunna. The European intelligence officer, who is very familiar with the Middle East, believes Iran is somehow involved in the fighting which led to the killing of the Marines. "For sure they, the neighbors who just had an election, are involved," the source told UPI.

The other seven Marines appear to have died in combat, with at least one of them killed by an enemy sniper.

"The problem here is that the Marines are being used as special forces," said the European intelligence officer, familiar with the inner workings of special forces operations.

"Close your eyes and run the film of events through your mind. The Marines are dressed up in protective Kevlar body armor, and yet seven are killed in action, some by sniper fire. What does that tell you?"

What this tells me is that the current strategy for success is not working too well. The U.S. Marines is among the best-trained professional fighting force in the world. For seven to die in a firefight, it also tells me there is a real fight going on in Iraq.

The death of 14 Marines killed by a giant improved explosive device was blamed on a newer, larger and deadlier generation of roadside bombs. This new crop is meant to kill more U.S. troops and to counter the additional protection U.S. troops have been layering their Humvees and other combat vehicles with.

But let's get back to the president's strategy. What does it contain, and how will it help win the war?

"We'll continue to hunt down the terrorists as we train Iraqi forces, so they can defend their own country. As Iraqis stand up, Americans and coalition forces will stand down. And we're making progress," said Bush.

In the meantime, the president reminded the country that we are still at war.

"Make no mistake about it: we are at war. We're at war with an enemy that attacked us on September the 11th, 2001. We're at war against an enemy that since that day has continued to kill. They have killed in Madrid and Istanbul and Jakarta and Casablanca and Riyadh and Bali and London and elsewhere.

"These are ideologues. See, these people have an ideology," said Bush, adding, "Theirs' is really different from ours.

"To win this war on terror, we will use all elements of national power. We'll use our military. We'll use our diplomatic corps. In other words, we're working with friends and allies."

Meanwhile, a videotape released earlier in the week of Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaida's No. 2, promises more acts of terror unless the coalition withdraws from Iraq.

"Our message to you is clear, strong and final: There will be no salvation until you withdraw from our land, stop stealing our oil and resources and end support for infidel, corrupt rulers."

source: http://www.spacewar.com/news/iraq-05zp.html 16aug2005