Why You Should Ignore The Gallup
Poll This Morning
And Maybe Other Gallup Polls As Well
The Left Coaster 17sep04
This morning we awoke to the startling news that despite a flurry of different polls this week all showing a tied race, the venerable Gallup Poll, as reported widely in the media (USA Today and CNN) today, showed George W. Bush with a huge 55%-42% lead over John Kerry amongst likely voters. The same Gallup Poll showed an 8-point lead for Bush amongst registered voters (52%-44%). Before you get discouraged by these results, you should be more upset that Gallup gets major media outlets to tout these polls and present a false, disappointing account of the actual state of the race. Why?
Because the Gallup Poll, despite its reputation, assumes that this November 40% of those turning out to vote will be Republicans, and only 33% will be Democrat. You read that correctly. I asked Gallup, who have been very courteous to my requests, to send me this morning their sample breakdowns by party identification for both their likely and registered voter samples they use in these national and I suspect their state polls. This is what I got back this morning:
Likely Voter Sample Party IDs – Poll of September 13-15 Reflected Bush Winning by 55%-42%
Total Sample: 767 GOP: 305 (40%) Dem: 253 (33%) Ind: 208 (28%)
Registered Voter Sample Party IDs – Same Poll Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%
Total Sample: 1022 GOP: 381 (38%) Dem: 336 (33%) Ind: 298 (30%)
In both polls, Gallup oversamples greatly for the GOP, and undersamples for the Democrats. Worse yet, Gallup just confirmed for me that this is the same sampling methodology they have been using this whole election season, for all their national and state polls. Gallup says that "This (the breakdown between Reeps and Dems) was not a constant. It can differ slightly between surveys" in response to my latest email. Slightly? Does that mean that in all of these national and state polls we have seen from Gallup that they have "slightly" varied between 36%-40% GOP and 32%-36% Democrat? I already know from an email I got from Gallup earlier in the week that in their suspicious Wisconsin and Minnesota polls they seemingly oversampled for the GOP and undersampled for the Dems. For example in Wisconsin, in which they show Bush now with a healthy lead, Gallup used a sample comprised of 38% GOP and 32% Democratic likely voters. In Minnesota where Gallup shows Bush gaining a small lead, their sample reflects a composition of 36% GOP and 34% Democrat likely voters. How realistic is either breakdown in those states on Election Day?
According to John Zogby himself:
If we look at the three last Presidential elections, the spread was 34% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents (in 1992 with Ross Perot in the race); 39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents in 1996; and 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents in 2000.
So the Democrats have been 39% of the voting populace in both 1996 and 2000, and the GOP has not been higher than 35% in either of those elections. Yet Gallup trumpets a poll that used a sample that shows a GOP bias of 40% amongst likely voters and 38% amongst registered voters, with a Democratic portion of the sample down to levels they haven’t been at since a strong three-way race in 1992?
Folks, unless Karl Rove can discourage the Democratic base into staying home in droves and gets the GOP to come out of the woodwork, there is no way in hell that these or any other Gallup Poll are to be taken seriously.
How likely is it that the Democrats will suffer a seven-point difference against the GOP this November or that the GOP will ever hit 40%?
Not very likely.
The real problem here is that Gallup is spreading a false impression of this race. Through its 1992 partnership with two international media outlets (CNN and USA Today), Gallup is telling voters and other media by using badly-sampled polls that the GOP and its candidates are more popular than they really are. Given that Gallup’s CEO is a GOP donor, this should not be a surprise. But it does require us to remind the media, like Susan Page of USA Today, who wrote the lead story on the poll in the morning paper, and other members of the media who cite this poll today, that it is based on a faulty sample composition of 40% GOP and 33% Democrats.
Steve Soto
source: http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002806.html 17oct04
Bush Clear Leader in Poll
SUSAN PAGE / USA Today 17sep04
WASHINGTON — President Bush has surged to a 13-point lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, a new Gallup Poll shows. The 55%-42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge either candidate has held this year. (Related item: Poll results)
Among registered voters, Bush is ahead 52%-44%.
The boost Bush received from the Republican convention has increased rather than dissipated, reshaping a race that for months has been nearly tied. Kerry is facing warnings from Democrats that his campaign is seriously off-track.
With 46 days until the election, analysts say the proposed presidential debates offer Kerry his best chance to change the race.
"It doesn't look like the new consultants and strategies of attacks are the right ones" for Kerry, says Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign. Kerry in recent weeks added veterans of the Clinton White House to his team and began criticizing Bush more sharply on Iraq and other issues.
Dowd says Kerry at this point would "have to defy history" to defeat a sitting president.
"We have seen some bouncing around in the numbers," says Mike McCurry, a top Kerry adviser, "but it is our sense that the race is moving back to a much closer race."
A Pew Research Center poll released Thursday shows a tighter contest. The survey, taken Saturday through Tuesday, gives Bush a statistically insignificant lead of 47%-46% among likely voters.
The Gallup Poll was taken Monday through Wednesday.
Presidential candidates have won after trailing by similar margins. One was George W. Bush himself. In 2000, he was behind Al Gore by 10 points among registered voters in early October and then prevailed in the Electoral College, though he lost the popular vote.
In 1980, Ronald Reagan was down 8 points in the Gallup Poll in late October but won in a landslide after doing well in the only debate held with President Carter.
"Sen. Kerry is like Seabiscuit: He runs better from behind," says Donna Brazile, who was Gore's campaign manager. But she acknowledges that "backbenchers" in the Democratic Party "have begun pushing the panic button."
source: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-09-17-gallup-poll_x.htm 17oct04
Poll results are based on interviews with national registered voters, conducted September 13-15, 2004.
1. Suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for?
Kerry/ Bush/ Other Neither
Edwards Cheney (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
Likely Voters
2004 Sep 13-15 42 55 * 1 2
2004 Sep 3-5 45 52 * 1 2
2004 Aug 23-25 47 50 -- 1 2
2004 Aug 9-11 47 50 * 1 2
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1 47 51 * * 2
2004 Jul 19-21 49 47 * 2 2
2004 Jul 8-11 50 46 * 2 2
2004 Jun 21-23 48 49 * 1 2
2003 Jun 3-6 50 44 1 2 3
2004 May 21-23 49 47 * 1 3
2004 May 7-9 47 48 1 2 2
2004 May 2-4 49 48 * 1 2
2004 Apr 16-18 46 51 * 2 1
2004 Apr 5-8 45 48 1 4 2
2004 Mar 26-28 47 51 -- 1 1
2004 Mar 5-7 52 44 1 2 1
2004 Feb 16-17 55 43 * 1 1
2004 Feb 6-8 48 49 * 1 2
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 53 46 -- * 1
2004 Jan 9-11 43 55 * 1 1
Registered Voters
2004 Sep 13-15 44 52 * 2 2
2004 Sep 3-5 48 49 * 2 1
2004 Aug 23-25 48 47 -- 2 3
2004 Aug 9-11 47 48 1 2 2
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1 48 48 * 1 3
2004 Jul 19-21 49 45 * 3 3
2004 Jul 8-11 51 44 * 2 3
2004 Jun 21-23 49 45 1 2 3
2004 Jun 3-6 49 44 * 3 4
2004 May 21-23 48 46 * 2 4
2004 May 7-9 50 44 * 3 3
2004 May 2-4 47 47 1 2 3
2004 Apr 16-18 46 50 * 2 2
2004 Apr 5-8 48 46 1 3 3
2004 Mar 26-28 46 49 * 2 3
2004 Mar 5-7 50 45 1 2 2
2004 Feb 16-17 51 46 * 2 1
2004 Feb 6-8 49 48 * 1 2
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 51 46 -- 1 2
2004 Jan 9-11 40 57 -- 2 1
2003 Nov 10-12 46 52 -- 1 1
2003 Sep 19-21 48 47 1 2 2
Vice Presidential candidates Edwards and Cheney added beginning with the July 8-11, 2004 survey.
Kerry/ Bush/ Other Neither Edwards Cheney (vol.) (vol.) No opinion National Adults 2004 Sep 13-15 45 51 * 2 2 2004 Sep 3-5 47 49 * 2 2 2004 Aug 23-25 48 47 -- 3 2 2004 Aug 9-11 47 47 1 2 3 2004 Jul 30-Aug 1 50 46 * 1 3 2004 Jul 19-21 48 46 * 3 3 2004 Jul 8-11 51 43 * 3 3 2004 Jun 21-23 48 46 1 2 3 2004 Jun 3-6 48 44 * 4 4 2004 May 21-23 48 44 * 4 4 2004 May 7-9 51 43 * 3 3 2004 May 2-4 47 46 1 3 3 2004 Apr 16-18 46 49 1 2 2 2004 Apr 5-8 46 47 1 3 3 2004 Mar 26-28 46 48 * 3 3 2004 Mar 5-7 50 45 * 3 2 2004 Feb 16-17 51 44 * 3 2 2004 Feb 6-8 48 48 * 2 2 2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 52 44 -- 2 2 2004 Jan 9-11 40 57 -- 2 1 2003 Nov 10-12 44 53 -- 1 2 2003 Sep 19-21 47 48 1 2 2
Vice Presidential candidates Edwards and Cheney added beginning with the July 8-11, 2004 survey.
2. As of today which one of these candidates do you lean toward?
2004 Sep 13-15 Likely voters Registered voters National adults John Kerry 40 42 41 George W. Bush 54 50 49 Ralph Nader 3 4 4 Michael Badnarik 1 1 1 David Cobb * * * Michael Peroutka * * * Other/neither/no opinion 2 3 5
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
Approve Disapprove No opinion 2004 Sep 13-15 52 45 3 2004 Sep 3-5 52 46 2 2004 Aug 23-25 49 47 4 2004 Aug 9-11 51 46 3 2004 Jul 30-Aug 1 48 49 3 2004 Jul 19-21 49 47 4 2004 Jul 8-11 47 49 4 2004 Jun 21-23 48 49 3 2004 Jun 3-6 49 49 2 2004 May 21-23 47 49 4 2004 May 7-9 46 51 3 2004 May 2-4 49 48 3 2004 Apr 16-18 52 45 3 2004 Apr 5-8 52 45 3 2004 Mar 26-28 53 44 3 2004 Mar 8-11 50 47 3 2004 Mar 5-7 49 48 3 2004 Feb 16-17 51 46 3 2004 Feb 9-12 51 46 3 2004 Feb 6-8 52 44 4 2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 48 48 3 2004 Jan 12-15 53 44 3 2004 Jan 9-11 59 38 3 2004 Jan 2-5 60 35 5 2003 Dec 15-16 63 34 3 2003 Dec 11-14 56 41 3 2003 Dec 5-7 55 43 2 2003 Nov 3-5 54 43 3 2003 Nov 10-12 51 45 4 2003 Nov 3-5 54 43 3 2003 Oct 6-8 55 42 3 2003 Sep 8-10 52 43 5 2003 Aug 4-6 60 36 4 2003 Jul 7-9 62 34 4 2003 May 30-Jun 1 64 32 4 2003 Apr 5-6 70 27 3 2003 Mar 3-5 57 37 6 2003 Jan 31-Feb 2 61 35 4 2003 Jan 3-5 63 32 5 2002 Dec 5-8 64 29 7 2002 Jun 3-6 70 23 7 2002 Jan 7-9 84 12 4 2001 Dec 14-16 86 11 3 2001 Jun 8-10 55 35 10 2001 Feb 1-4 57 25 18
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,022 national adults, aged 18+, conducted September 13-15, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
Results for likely voters are based on the subsample of 767 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 General Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 55% of national adults. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.
For results based on the sample of 935 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
source: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-17-gallup-poll.htm 17oct04
Latest presidential polls vary widely:
Gallup, Pew Research polls get different results
CNN 17sep04
Two new national polls are giving widely divergent views as to whether President Bush's post-convention bounce has solidified or evaporated.
A Gallup Poll released Friday showed the president widening his lead over Kerry among likely voters to 13 percentage points, with 55 percent for Bush and 42 percent for Kerry.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. (Special report: America Votes 2004, poll tracker)
The race narrowed to 8 points among registered voters, with 52 percent choosing Bush and 44 percent picking Kerry.
The level of support for the president was the highest he has seen in the Gallup Poll since January, when he was enjoying a bump from the capture of Saddam Hussein.
Bush's job approval rating also rose to its highest level since April, with 52 percent saying they approved of his performance and 45 percent saying they did not.
However, a poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, released Thursday, showed the race between Bush and Kerry now a dead heat.
Among registered voters, the two candidates were tied at 46 percent in the Pew poll; among likely voters, Bush led by a statistically insignificant margin of 47 percent to 46 percent.
The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The Pew Center conducted two waves of polling over a seven-day period between September 8 and Tuesday.
In the first wave, Bush had a double-digit lead, but by the final wave of polling, the race had become a dead heat, indicating that the president's momentum had eroded.
The Gallup Poll, which showed no erosion of momentum, was conducted at roughly the same time as the second wave of polling done by the Pew Center.
source: http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/17/presidential.polls/index.html 17oct04
2004:
It Is Not An 11 Point Race
JOHN ZOGBY / Zogby International 7sep04
The Republican National Convention is over and score it a huge success for President George W. Bush. For one solid week he was on message and got Americans who watched to listen to the message he intends to carry in the fall campaign: leadership, decisiveness and success battling the war on terrorism. The convention actually followed another big week for Mr. Bush and equally dismal one for his opponent, Democratic Senator John Kerry.
Now the first polls are out. I have Mr. Bush leading by 2 points in the simple head-to-head match up - 46% to 44%. Add in the other minor candidates and it becomes a 3 point advantage for the President - 46% to 43%. This is no small achievement. The President was behind 50% to 43% in my mid-August poll and he essentially turned the race around by jumping 3 points as Mr. Kerry lost 7 points. Impressive by any standards.
For the first time in my polling this year, Mr. Bush lined up his Republican ducks in a row by receiving 90% support of his own party, went ahead among Independents, and now leads by double-digits among key groups like investors. Also for the first time the President now leads among Catholics. Mr. Kerry is on the ropes.
Two new polls came out immediately after mine (as of this writing) by the nation's leading weekly news magazines. Both Time's 52% to 41% lead among likely voters and Newsweek's 54% to 43% lead among registered voters give the President a healthy 11 point lead. I have not yet been able to get the details of Time's methodology but I have checked out Newsweek's poll. Their sample of registered voters includes 38% Republican, 31% Democrat and 31% Independent voters. If we look at the three last Presidential elections, the spread was 34% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents (in 1992 with Ross Perot in the race); 39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents in 1996; and 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents in 2000. While party identification can indeed change within the electorate, there is no evidence anywhere to suggest that Democrats will only represent 31% of the total vote this year. In fact, other competitors have gone in the opposite direction. The Los Angeles Times released a poll in June of this year with 38% Democrats and only 25% Republicans. And Gallup's party identification figures have been all over the place.
This is no small consideration. Given the fact that each candidate receives anywhere between eight in ten and nine in ten support from voters in his own party, any change in party identification trades point for point in the candidate's total support. My polls use a party weight of 39% Democrat, 35% Republican and 26% Independent. Thus in examining the Newsweek poll, add three points for Mr. Bush because of the percentage of Republicans in their poll, then add another 8% for Mr. Bush for the reduction in Democrats. It is not hard to see how we move from my two-point lead to their eleven-point lead for the President.
I will save the detailed methodological discussion for another time. But I will remind readers that my polling has come closest to the final results in both 1996 and 2000.
None of this takes away from the President's achievement. He got out of his party's convention everything he needed to launch his campaign in earnest in the closing two months. But my poll still reveals lurking shadows for him. He still has a net negative job performance rating, a negative re-elect (i.e. more voters think it is time for someone new than feel he deserves re-election) and a net negative wrong direction for the country.
The poll also suggests that Mr. Kerry is behind and has a lot of work to do to refocus the campaign on the issues that must work for him: the economy, health care, and the execution of the war in Iraq. We also see now that at least in the short run, the advertising campaign against the Senator about his military service in Vietnam has raised questions about his integrity and has caused his personal unfavorable numbers to jump.
But with all that said, it simply is not an 11 point race. It just isn't.
John Zogby is the President and CEO of Zogby International- an independent polling firm, and writes this column for the Financial Times where it first appeared..
source: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=859 17oct04
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