Employment Situation December 2003
US Department of Labor 9jan04
Summary
Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 USDL 04-07
http://www.bls.gov/cps/
Establishment data: 691-6555 Transmission of material in this release is
http://www.bls.gov/ces/ embargoed until 8:30 A.M. (EST),
Media contact: 691-5902 Friday, January 9, 2004.
Employment was virtually unchanged in December while the unemployment rate,
at 5.7 percent, continued to trend down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Following increases that totaled
277,000 in the prior 4 months, nonfarm payroll was flat in December (+1,000).
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
The number of unemployed persons was 8.4 million in December and the unemployment rate was 5.7 percent. Both measures continued to edge down from their
recent highs in June 2003. In December, the unemployment rates for adult men (5.3 percent) and Hispanics or Latinos (6.6 percent) declined. The jobless
rates for the other major worker groups--adult women (5.1 percent), teenagers (16.1 percent), whites (5.0 percent), and blacks (10.3 percent)--showed little
or no change from the previous month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 5.3 percent in December, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
The civilian labor force fell by 309,000 in December to 146.9 million; the labor force participation rate decreased over the month to 66.0 percent. Over
the year, the participation rate declined by 0.4 percentage point. Both total employment (138.5 million) and the employment-population ratio (62.2 percent)
were about unchanged in December. (See table A-1.)
Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
In December, about 1.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about the same as a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.)
These individuals wanted and were available to work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed,
however, because they did not actively search for work in the 4 weeks preceding the
survey. There were 433,000 discouraged workers in December, also about the same
as in December 2002. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, were not currently looking for work specifically because they believed no jobs
were available for them. The other 1.1 million marginally attached had not
searched for work for other reasons such as school or family responsibilities.
(See table A-13.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------- | Seasonally adjusted household survey data have been revised us- | | ing updated seasonal adjustment factors that incorporate 2003 data. | | Seasonally adjusted estimates back to January 1999 were subject to | | revision. The unemployment rates for January-December 2003, as | | originally published and as revised, appear on page 5, along with | | additional information on the revisions. | ---------------------------------------------------------------------
Table A. Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
| Quarterly | |
| averages | Monthly data |
|_________________|__________________________| Nov.-
Category | 2003 | 2003 | Dec.
|_________________|__________________________| change
| III | IV | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|_______
HOUSEHOLD DATA | Labor force status
|____________________________________________________
Civilian labor force.....| 146,628| 146,986| 146,892| 147,187| 146,878| -309
Employment.............| 137,647| 138,369| 138,095| 138,533| 138,479| -54
Unemployment...........| 8,981| 8,616| 8,797| 8,653| 8,398| -255
Not in labor force.......| 74,885| 75,290| 75,147| 75,093| 75,631| 538
|________|________|________|________|________|_______
| Unemployment rates
|____________________________________________________
All workers..............| 6.1| 5.9| 6.0| 5.9| 5.7| -0.2
Adult men..............| 5.8| 5.5| 5.6| 5.6| 5.3| -.3
Adult women............| 5.2| 5.1| 5.2| 5.1| 5.1| .0
Teenagers..............| 17.5| 16.3| 17.1| 15.7| 16.1| .4
White..................| 5.4| 5.1| 5.1| 5.2| 5.0| -.2
Black or African | | | | | |
American.............| 11.0| 10.7| 11.4| 10.4| 10.3| -.1
Hispanic or Latino | | | | | |
ethnicity............| 7.8| 7.1| 7.3| 7.4| 6.6| -.8
|________|________|________|________|________|_______
ESTABLISHMENT DATA | Employment
|____________________________________________________
Nonfarm employment.......| 129,902|p130,109| 130,080|p130,123|p130,124| p1
Goods-producing 1/.....| 21,987| p21,954| 21,966| p21,954| p21,942| p-12
Construction.........| 6,823| p6,859| 6,845| p6,859| p6,873| p14
Manufacturing........| 14,599| p14,530| 14,556| p14,530| p14,504| p-26
Service-providing 1/...| 107,915|p108,155| 108,114|p108,169|p108,182| p13
Retail trade.........| 14,973| p14,965| 14,996| p14,969| p14,931| p-38
Professional and | | | | | |
business services..| 16,075| p16,182| 16,142| p16,179| p16,224| p45
Education and health | | | | | |
services...........| 16,533| p16,651| 16,625| p16,653| p16,674| p21
Leisure and | | | | | |
hospitality........| 12,053| p12,083| 12,071| p12,091| p12,087| p-4
Government...........| 21,461| p21,471| 21,473| p21,472| p21,468| p-4
|________|________|________|________|________|_______
| Hours of work 2/
|____________________________________________________
Total private............| 33.7| p33.8| 33.8| p33.9| p33.7| p-0.2
Manufacturing..........| 40.3| p40.7| 40.6| p40.8| p40.7| p-.1
Overtime.............| 4.1| p4.5| 4.3| p4.5| p4.6| p.1
|________|________|________|________|________|_______
| Indexes of aggregate weekly hours (2002=100) 2/
|____________________________________________________
Total private............| 98.6| p99.1| 99.1| p99.4| p98.8| p-0.6
|________|________|________|________|________|_______
| Earnings 2/
|____________________________________________________
Avg. hourly earnings, | | | | | |
total private..........| $15.44| p$15.48| $15.46| p$15.47| p$15.50| p$0.03
Avg. weekly earnings, | | | | | |
total private..........| 519.82| p523.11| 522.55| p524.43| p522.35| p-2.08
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|_______
1 Includes other industries, not shown separately.
2 Data relate to private production or nonsupervisory workers.
p = preliminary.
NOTE: Seasonally adjusted household data have been revised. See note on
page 5.
Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)
Total nonfarm payroll employment was unchanged (+1,000) in December, at 130.1 million, seasonally adjusted. Employment continued to rise in the temporary help, construction, and health care industries. Retail trade and manufacturing lost jobs over the month. (See table B-1.)
In December, employment in retail trade declined by 38,000. Weak hiring for the holiday shopping period resulted in seasonally adjusted job losses in general merchandise stores; miscellaneous store retailers; and sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores. Employment in gasoline stations also decreased over the month.
Manufacturing employment was down by 26,000 in December. From September to December, employment in this industry declined at a slower pace than during the first 8 months of 2003. Employment in nondurable goods manufacturing decreased by 18,000 in December, with the largest losses in printing and related support activities (-4,000) and in textile mills (-3,000). Manufacturing lost 516,000 jobs in 2003 and has shed 2.8 million jobs since July 2000, the last month it recorded a gain.
Within the financial activities industry, employment in credit intermedi- ation declined for the third consecutive month, reflecting the reduced volume of mortgage refinancing. From July 2000 through September 2003, the industry added 251,000 jobs, but since then employment has fallen by 39,000.
Professional and business services added 45,000 jobs in December. Over the year, employment increases in this industry have totaled 252,000. The majority of this gain occurred in temporary help services, which added 166,000 jobs in 2003, including 30,000 in December. Employment in education and health services also continued to rise over the month. Over the year, the industry added 301,000 jobs.
Construction employment continued on a modest upward trend in December. The industry has added 173,000 jobs since February.
Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)
The average workweek for production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.2 hour in December to 33.7 hours, seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing workweek declined by 0.1 hour to 40.7 hours, and manufacturing overtime edged up by 0.1 hour to 4.6 hours. (See table B-2.)
The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.6 percent to 98.8 in December (2002=100). The manufacturing index decreased by 0.4 percent over the month to 94.6. (See table B-5.)
Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)
Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 3 cents over the month to $15.50, seasonally adjusted. Average weekly earnings fell by 0.4 percent in December to $522.35. Over the year, average hourly earnings increased by 2.0 percent, and average weekly earnings rose by 1.7 percent. (See table B-3.)
Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Household Survey Data
At the end of each calendar year, BLS routinely updates the seasonal adjustment factors for the labor force series derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS), or household survey, to incorporate the data for that year. This year, seasonally adjusted data for January 1999-December 2003 were subject to revision. (Seasonally adjusted establishment data will be revised next month, concurrent with the introduction of annual benchmark adjustments.)
Table B summarizes the effects of the revisions on the overall unemployment rate since January 2003. The rate was revised in 3 months, in each case by +/-0.1 percentage point. Revised seasonally adjusted data for major labor force series since December 2002 appear in table C.
Beginning with this release, BLS has converted to the use of concurrent seasonal adjustment to produce seasonally adjusted labor force estimates from the CPS. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available monthly estimates, including those for the most current month, in developing seasonal factors. This is a change from the previous practice of projecting seasonal factors for the CPS data twice a year. Due to this change in methodology, BLS will no longer publish seasonal factors for the CPS estimates. Historical seasonally adjusted household survey data will continue to be revised only at the end of each calendar year. BLS introduced the use of concurrent seasonal adjustment for the establishment survey data from the Current Employment Statistics program in June 2003 with the release of data for May 2003.
The January 2004 issue of Employment and Earnings will contain an article describing the current seasonal adjustment methodology for the household survey data and revised data for the most recent months or quarters for all regularly published tables containing seasonally adjusted household survey data. A copy of the article is available at http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsrs2004.pdf on the Internet. Historical data for the household series contained in the "A" tables of this release also can be accessed at http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsatabs.htm on the BLS Internet site. Revised historical seasonally adjusted monthly and quarterly data also are available on the Internet at ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/lf/.
Table B. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates and changes due to revision, January-December 2003
---------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
Month and year | As first | As | Change
| published | revised |
| | |
---------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
2003 | | |
| | |
January..............| 5.7 | 5.8 | 0.1
February.............| 5.8 | 5.9 | .1
March................| 5.8 | 5.8 | .0
April................| 6.0 | 6.0 | .0
May..................| 6.1 | 6.1 | .0
June.................| 6.4 | 6.3 | -.1
July.................| 6.2 | 6.2 | .0
August...............| 6.1 | 6.1 | .0
September............| 6.1 | 6.1 | .0
October..............| 6.0 | 6.0 | .0
November.............| 5.9 | 5.9 | .0
December.............| 1/ 5.7 | 5.7 | .0
---------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Not published.
Table C. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age, seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
Employment status, 2002 2003 .
sex, and age Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
TOTAL
Civilian noninstitutional
population(1)............ 218,741 219,897 220,114 220,317 220,540 220,768 221,014 221,252 221,507 221,779 222,039 222,279 222,509
Civilian labor force...... 145,157 145,875 145,898 145,818 146,377 146,462 146,917 146,652 146,622 146,610 146,892 147,187 146,878
Percent of population. 66.4 66.3 66.3 66.2 66.4 66.3 66.5 66.3 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.2 66.0
Employed................ 136,459 137,447 137,318 137,300 137,578 137,505 137,673 137,604 137,693 137,644 138,095 138,533 138,479
Employment-population
ratio................ 62.4 62.5 62.4 62.3 62.4 62.3 62.3 62.2 62.2 62.1 62.2 62.3 62.2
Unemployed.............. 8,698 8,428 8,581 8,519 8,799 8,957 9,245 9,048 8,929 8,966 8,797 8,653 8,398
Unemployment rate..... 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.7
Men, 20 years and over
Civilian noninstitutional
population(1)............ 97,139 97,635 97,762 97,869 97,979 98,083 98,196 98,304 98,434 98,568 98,696 98,814 98,927
Civilian labor force...... 73,725 74,014 74,241 74,209 74,510 74,523 74,675 74,660 74,682 74,905 74,942 75,188 75,044
Percent of population. 75.9 75.8 75.9 75.8 76.0 76.0 76.0 75.9 75.9 76.0 75.9 76.1 75.9
Employed................ 69,569 69,940 70,174 70,213 70,290 70,182 70,190 70,269 70,324 70,596 70,726 70,964 71,099
Employment-population
ratio................ 71.6 71.6 71.8 71.7 71.7 71.6 71.5 71.5 71.4 71.6 71.7 71.8 71.9
Unemployed.............. 4,157 4,075 4,068 3,995 4,220 4,341 4,485 4,391 4,358 4,309 4,216 4,224 3,945
Unemployment rate..... 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.8 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.3
Women, 20 years and over
Civilian noninstitutional
population(1)............ 105,678 106,235 106,322 106,411 106,510 106,613 106,724 106,839 106,957 107,080 107,197 107,303 107,404
Civilian labor force...... 64,056 64,490 64,359 64,490 64,632 64,699 64,989 64,835 64,836 64,608 64,899 64,917 64,846
Percent of population. 60.6 60.7 60.5 60.6 60.7 60.7 60.9 60.7 60.6 60.3 60.5 60.5 60.4
Employed................ 60,750 61,391 61,106 61,219 61,343 61,397 61,610 61,479 61,467 61,191 61,524 61,597 61,521
Employment-population
ratio................ 57.5 57.8 57.5 57.5 57.6 57.6 57.7 57.5 57.5 57.1 57.4 57.4 57.3
Unemployed.............. 3,306 3,100 3,253 3,271 3,289 3,302 3,379 3,356 3,369 3,417 3,375 3,320 3,326
Unemployment rate..... 5.2 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1
Both sexes, 16 to 19 years
Civilian noninstitutional
population(1)............ 15,925 16,027 16,030 16,038 16,051 16,072 16,095 16,109 16,116 16,131 16,145 16,162 16,178
Civilian labor force...... 7,376 7,371 7,298 7,120 7,235 7,240 7,254 7,157 7,104 7,097 7,051 7,082 6,987
Percent of population. 46.3 46.0 45.5 44.4 45.1 45.0 45.1 44.4 44.1 44.0 43.7 43.8 43.2
Employed................ 6,141 6,117 6,039 5,868 5,945 5,926 5,873 5,856 5,902 5,857 5,846 5,972 5,859
Employment-population
ratio................ 38.6 38.2 37.7 36.6 37.0 36.9 36.5 36.4 36.6 36.3 36.2 37.0 36.2
Unemployed.............. 1,235 1,254 1,260 1,252 1,290 1,314 1,381 1,301 1,202 1,240 1,205 1,109 1,128
Unemployment rate..... 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.1 19.0 18.2 16.9 17.5 17.1 15.7 16.1
source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm 17jan04
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