Space Tourism

Space buffs could use a boost 

DAVID LAZARUS SF Chronicle 26may02

Lance Bass, a member of the boy band 'N Sync, is undergoing tests to see if he's fit enough to become the world's latest space tourist.

Fremont's Brook Mantia, president of the Golden Gate Space Frontier Society,

is keeping her fingers crossed that he makes it.

It's not that Mantia is especially eager to see a self-serving pop star blasted into orbit, although there's a certain appeal to the notion. And it's not that Mantia herself could afford the $20 million Bass would pay for the privilege.

Rather, Mantia, who has spent years crusading for colonization and commercialization of the cosmos, figures that each time someone like Bass makes it into space, that just brings us one step closer to the day when everyone has a chance to play Captain Kirk.

"Let the rich people go first," she told me. "Let them pay for it. The costs will eventually come down, and I'll be waiting for an economy-class seat. "

Mantia and other longtime space enthusiasts may not be disappointed. A new poll by Zogby International finds that 7 percent of wealthy Americans would pay $20 million for a two-week space trip and 19 percent would pony up $100, 000 for a 15-minute suborbital flight.

Along these lines, a symposium on "the new space economy" will be held in Palo Alto on June 6, with panelists discussing whether tourism and other commercial uses of space represent the next Industrial Revolution. (Check out www.space-frontier.org for more info.)

But the reality is that space tourism remains little more than a novelty, and a hugely expensive one at that. The private sector's embrace of space has been halting at best, and NASA, for its part, has jealously clung to its control of America's astral ambitions.

Among the more spectacular private-sector flameouts have been San Jose's Globalstar and the Motorola-led Iridium project, both satellite-based communications systems that failed to lure customers away from smaller, cheaper and easier-to-use terrestrial cell phones.

Private-sector rockets for satellite launches have similarly struggled for a toehold in an industry dominated by government-run programs. Europe's Arianespace, the largest commercial launch provider, was said last week to be on the verge of bankruptcy after reporting a net loss of $177 million.

"I'm pretty frustrated," said Bill Weitz, secretary of the Northern California chapter of the Mars Society, which is dedicated to promoting mankind's settlement of the Red Planet. "Things haven't gone the way we thought."

Sad, but true.

For many space aficionados, the blueprint for the future was sketched out in Stanley Kubrick's "2001: A Space Odyssey." A Pan Am shuttle is seen in the film ferrying passengers to a space station containing, among other things, a Hilton hotel and a Howard Johnson's restaurant.

"2001" was released in 1968. A lot has transpired since then. But as far as the space program goes, our early successes on the moon have given way to a series of unglamorous near-Earth hops in a rocket-powered pickup truck.

The International Space Station may allow for some nifty scientific research, but it won't serve as a way station for further exploration. And the private sector plays virtually no role in the running of the facility.

The only reason two civilians have already traveled to the space station is because the Russians are pitifully short of cash and are selling off rides alongside their cosmonauts to the highest bidder.

Yet Russia's financial woes have been a boon to a Virginia company called Space Adventures, which handled all the arrangements for millionaires Dennis Tito and Mark Shuttleworth to go sightseeing in the heavens.

Eric Anderson, Space Adventures' chief executive, said providing training, transportation and accommodations for space tourists is just the start for his company.

"Our market studies show that space tourism is a multibillion-dollar business and will be even bigger in the future," he said.

Within the next few years, or so the company hopes, Space Adventures will be offering brief suborbital flights for about $100,000 a pop. The firm is already booking seats on yet-to-be built stellar tour buses.

"You'll become an astronaut, basically," Anderson said. "It's a very unique experience."

The Holy Grail of space tourism, though, will be construction of a cosmic Club Med -- an orbital resort hotel for well-heeled travelers with a taste for highly exotic locales.

Anderson said he's already discussing such a project with "very credible entities" in the private sector, although he wouldn't name names and wouldn't go into any detail.

Robert Compton, president of the Sacramento chapter of the L-5 Society, which advocates colonization of space at a unique spot where the Earth and moon have the same gravitational tug, thinks a space hotel would be great.

"But the initial investment is just too huge," he said with chagrin. "I don't think anyone would really do it."

The L-5 Society attracted a lot of space buffs when it was founded in the mid-1970s. Today, Compton said, his branch has only six active members, and they often have a hard time coming up with anything to discuss at meetings.

"We were hoping for a big surge in commercialization of space," he said. "It hasn't happened."

The Bay Area's Golden Gate Space Frontier Society is also finding that interest has waned for a brave new world of galactic exploration. The group now has only 20 members, who meet monthly at a sports bar in San Leandro.

"We used to do a lot more," said Mantia, the group's leader. "We'd bring in speakers. Lately it's been more of a social thing."

She paused and then added brightly, "We saw 'Star Wars' last week."

The dream lives on. Sort of.

Los Angeles, CA, April 25, 2002 - Even at a price of over $15 million dollars (US) per ticket, a burgeoning new space tourism industry is emerging, according to the Space Frontier Foundation. Mark Shuttleworth of South Africa recently became the second civilian to buy a ticket for a flight to the International Space Station, and follows on the successful flight of private citizen Dennis Tito who, last year, became the first. And, there are more ticket buyers waiting in the wings.

"Even at these ‘astronomical’ prices," said Foundation President Rick Tumlinson, "we have an American ‘soccer mom,’ a businessman from Poland, and even a pop star pulling funds together for their tickets." He is certain that, over time, the high cost of spaceflight will come down, as market forces kick in and new passenger-carrying space ships come on line. Tumlinson, acting privately, initially signed Tito up for his flight last year.

"At the beginning of the aviation industry," Tumlinson explained, "only the very rich could afford to fly across the oceans, but eventually the cost began to fall as systems were created to streamline the process. This allowed more people to fly, which brought the cost even lower. Now almost anyone can buy a plane ticket to anywhere. It will take longer for this to happen in space, but it will happen."

The Foundation, which supports tax and market incentives to help kick-start the nascent space transportation industry, wants government and Wall Street to take notice and act now to support commercial human space activities.

"This should be a wake up call to potential investors in companies wanting to cater to this market," believes Tumlinson. "Imagine - if the costs could be brought down, this market could be worth billions."

The Foundation is happy that NASA and the other space agencies operating the ISS have now created standards and systems for clearing and training what it calls "citizen explorers." The group believes the next big hurdles are commercial spaceships that operate like airliners and the development of dedicated space hotels.

Added Tumlinson, "right now, the government can only do so much in this area. There are credible private teams out there who want to build the space versions of DC-3s and space Hiltons, but they are dying on the vine due to lack of investment." According to the Foundation, it is time for those of vision to step up and help open this new frontier to the people of Earth, by bringing the costs down. "After all," he concluded, "the ‘Right Stuff’ isn’t limited to government employees, their guests and an occasional multi-millionaire. Why shouldn’t we all get to experience the ride of a lifetime?"

The Space Frontier Foundation is a media and policy organization dedicated to the human settlement of space in our lifetime. Our goals include protecting the Earth's fragile biosphere and creating a freer and more prosperous life for each generation by using the unlimited energy and material resources of space. Our purpose is to unleash the power of free enterprise and lead a united humanity permanently into the Solar System. We are transforming space from a government-owned program into a dynamic and inclusive frontier open to all people.