DRAFT
VINYL CHLORIDE MONOMER EMISSIONS
FROM THE POLYVINYL CHLORIDE PROCESSING INDUSTRIES
Report to
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
III. END-USE MARKETS AND STRUCTURE OF THE FABRICATION INDUSTRY
A. AN OVERVIEW
PVC products are manufactured by some 8,000 fabricators. However, about two-thirds of the PVC resin produced annually is consumed by less than 100 large companies. Of the 22 major producers of PVC resin (listed in Appendix Table A-II), 19 have significant captive fabricating operations with Air Products, Keysor, and American Chemical being the only resin producers without captive fabricating operations. We estimate that captive consumption of PVC resin on the part of the resin producers is equal to about one-quarter of the total domestic consumption of PVC.
About a dozen large companies represent an additional 20% of the total
consumption of PVC resin. These companies include Armstrong Cork, Western
Electric (a subsidiary of AT&T), Ford Motor Company, Johns Manville,
Certain-Teed Products, American Biltrite Rubber, W.R. Grace, and
Kentile. These
companies each purchase at least 25 million pounds of PVC resin per year,
and most have more than one consuming location for PVC resins.
A list of the major fabricators appears in the Appendix (Table A-II). This
list accounts for about 75% of the PVC sold to the fabricators in this
country. In addition, there are thousands of small custom molders and
extruders who process PVC (as well as a variety of other resins) into custom
molded and extruded parts for numerous end users.
As noted throughout this report, PVC is one of the most versatile synthetic
resins. Its myriad of applications fall into six major markets: building and
construction, houshold furnishings, consumer goods, wire and cable, packaging,
and transportation. This end-use breakdown for the PVC consumed in 1974 is shown
in Table III-1. Table III-2 shows 1969-1974 trends. Note that the building and
construction end-use market is responsible for almost half of all PVC consumed
in the United States. Next in importance are household and consumer goods.
As Table III-2 indicates, the market for building and construction products has
grown most rapidly. From 1969 to 1973,.-the average annual growth was 28%. In
contrast, the consumption of PVC in wire and cable was essentially static during
this same period.
B. STRUCTURE OF THE COMPOUNDING INDUSTRY
As indicated in the discussion above, compounding can be carried out by the
resin producer, the fabricator, or by independent compounders who buy raw resin
and prepare compounds for the fabricator. The location at which compounding is
done depends upon the nature of the compound, the end product, and the size of
the fabricator's operation.
III-1
DOMESTIC
END USE BREAKDOWN OF PVC RESIN - 1974
% OF
END USE AND PRODUCT MARKET MILLION LBS
Building and Construction
Pipe & Conduit 1259
Flooring 343
Fittings 97
Siding & Panels 97
Lighting 13
Foam Molding 48
Rainwater Systems 33
Weather Stripping 35
Windows, Other Profiles 53
Swimming Pool Liners 42
SUB TOTAL 45 2020
Household Goods
Furniture Upholstery 317
Wall Covering & Wood Surface Films 128
Garden Hose 37
Appliance Parts (Hoses, Gaskets, etc.) 46
Others (Shower Curtains, Tablecloths, etc.) 102
SUB TOTAL 14 630
Wire and Cable 8 354
Consumer Goods
Phonograph Records 143
Footwear 139
Toys 81
Outerwear 66
Sporting Goods 62
Baby Pants 24
SUB TOTAL 11 515
Packaging
Film 125
Sheet 81
Bottles 75
( Coatings 60
( Bottle Cap Liners & Gaskets
SUB TOTAL 8 341
III-2
-
TABLE III-1 (Continued)
%
END USE AND PRODUCT OF MARKET MILLION LBS
Transportation
Upholstery & Seat Covers 185
Auto Tops 29
Auto Mats 42
6 256
Other Uses
Medical Tubing, Credit Cards,
novelties, tools and hardware, etc. 8 358
GRAND TOTAL 4474
Source: Modern Plastics, Jan 1974, and A. D. Little estimates.
III-3
U.S. CONSUMPTION OF PVC RESINS. BY END-USE
(MM Pounds)
Household Building & Consumer
Year Goods Construction Electrical Goods Packaging Transportation Others Total
1969 513 817 405 374 228 224 151 2712
1970 513 1006 425 424 272 215 172 3027
1971 564 1165 385 437 286 240 209 3286
1972 630 1739 439 504 357 255 256 4180
1973 545 2134 414 550 375 255 313 4586
1974* 630 2020 354 515 341 256 358 4474
Annual Growth (%) 1969-1973
2 28 0.5 10 13 3 20 14
Source: Modern Plastics, and SPI statistics
* Arthur D. Little. Inc. estimates
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Tables III-3 through III-5 show breakdowns of compounding operation locations by type of resin and end product. In total, approximately 75% of PVC compound is made in the fabricator's facilities, and about 5% is compounded by independent compounders or formulators. The remainder is compounded by the resin producer.
Approximately 64% of rigid compound is made on-site by the fabricators and 35% by the resin producers; little is compounded by the independent compounder. The only major exceptions are phonograph records and some profiles and injection molded products.
Flexible compound is also made primarily by the fabricators (83x) and by the resin producers (11Z). Only 6% is compounded by the independent compounders. These "independents" supply wire and cable extruders and molders who fabricate a variety of flexible products.
Paste resins are formulated either by the fabricator (80%) or by the independent formulator (20X). The resin producer provides only the resin.
Structure of the Independent Compounder Industry. This segment of the industry is divided into two separate groups: (1) compounders who prepare flexible and rigid compounds; and (2) formulators who prepare plastisol and organosol formulations.
Six companies dominate the independent compounders of flexible and rigid compounds. Teknor-Apex and Blane Chemical (a division of Reichhold Chemicals) are probably the largest ones. Both are located in New England. Others include Franklin Plastic (NJ), Premier (Kentucky), Maclin (Los Angeles, CA), and Lyncore (MA). Blane also has plants in Kentucky and California, and Apex has another plant in Tennessee.
There are several dozen independent formulators of plastisols and organosols. By far the largest one is Chemical Products, followed by M 6 T Chemicals (American Can Co.). These formulators prepare drum quantities of the liquid plastisols for the numerous small fabricators who are involved in processing plastisols into specialty products.
Appendix Table A-III gives a list of suppliers of compound including
both independent compounders and formulators and resin manufacturers who
also supply compound. Fabricators who consume all their own compound are
not included.
C. STRUCTURE OF THE FABRICATING INDUSTRIES
1. The Pipe, Conduit, and Pipe Fittings Industry
PVC pipe and fittings comprise by far the single largest use of PVC,
accounting for 1.3 billion pounds (or 28% of the total U.S. output of PVC)
in 1974. Although ABS, other styrene copolymers, and polyethylene compete
with PVC in this market, PVC accounts for well over half of the total
plastic pipe and conduit business.
III-5
ESTIMATED CONSUMPTION OF RESIN FOR RIGID COMPOUND IN 1974
(MM POUNDS)
COMPOUNDED BY
PROCESS/END-PRODUCT FABRICATOR RESIN PRODUCER COMPOUNDER TOTAL
Extrusion (Total) 1150 416 5 1571
Pipe & Conduit 1102 120 1222
Panels & Siding 97 97
Rainwater Systems 33 33
Sheet and Film* 81 81
Foam Moldings 48 48
Credit Cards 22 22
Windows, Other 63 5 68
Profiles
Molding (Total) 100 262 8 370
Phonograph Records 100 40 3 143
Bottles 75 75
Pipe Fittings 92 5 97
Others 55 55
GRAND TOTAL 1250 678 13 1941
% 64 35 1 100
Source: Arthur D: Little, Inc.
*A small amount of rigid sheet is calendered rather than extruded.
III-6
COMPOUNDED BY
PROCESS/END PRODUCT FABRICATOR RESIN PRODUCER COMPOUNDER TOTAL
Calendering (Total) 867 - - 867
Extrusion (Total) 458 101 70 629
Wire & Cable 284 70 354
Film 50 75 125
Garden Hose 37 37
Medical Tubing 25 26 51
Weather Stripping 35 35
Others 27 27
Molding (Total) 75 25 100
Footwear, etc.
GRAND TOTAL 1325 176 95 1596
% 83 11 6 100
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc.
III-7
-
ESTIMATED CONSUMPTION OF PASTE RESIN IN 1974
(MM POUNDS)
COMPOUNDED BY
END PRODUCT PROCESS* FABRICATOR FORMULATOR TOTAL**
Flooring CP 150 150
Upholstery
Auto CP 28 28
Furniture CP 32 32
Outerwear CP 33 33
Sporting Goods CP, RC 10 30 40
Footwear SM, CP, LP 20 22 42
Toys RC, LP 33 33
Closure Gaskets LP 17 5 22
Other (Luggage, CP 61 61
Wallets, etc.)
TOTAL 360 90 450
% 80 20 100
Source
: Arthur D. Little, Inc.
-
* CP - Coating and casting; SM - Slush molding; RC - Rotational casting; LP -
Low-pressure injection molding.
** Paste resins are "formulated" rather than compounded, according to the terminology of the industry
III-8
Markets and Trends in the Pipe and Conduit Industry. A breakdown of uses of PVC pipe and conduit is shown in Table III-6. The major end-use application for PVC pipe is in potable and non-potable water distribution and supply, which requires pressure pipe. About 68% of PVC pipe goes into this end use. The use of PVC as sewer pipe is ·a new market, and one where PVC is expected to penetrate strongly. In DWV (drain, waste, and vent) pipe, PVC's market share is about 50%, and PVC is expected to gradually increase its share of this market at the expense of ABS. According to industry observers, the use of low-pressure PVC pipe, particularly large diameter water pipe (12 inches and larger) and sewer pipe is expected to continue to expand. Other end uses also expected to grow include: telephone conduit, and residential hot-water pipe made from post-chlorinated PVC.
The use of PVC in pipe made the biggest jump in 1972, when consumption of PVC for this end use doubled from about 500 to 1,000 million pounds. In the two-year period, from 1971 to 1973, the average annual growth rate amounted to 60%; there was little growth in this market in 1974.
Structure of the Pipe and Conduit Industry. Several dozen companies manufacture PVC pipe and conduit. (A list appears in Appendix Table A-IV.) The three major producers in this industry, ranked in order of decreasing production are: Johns Manville, Robintech and Certain-Teed. These three companies account for 25 to 30 percent of all PVC pipe and conduit production. Johns Manville alone has 11 plants and one under construction in McNary, Oregon. Other important PVC pipe manufacturers are: Carlon, Amoco Chemicals, and Cresline. There is considerable integration within the plastic pipe industry; for example, Certain-Teed and Robintech have integrated backward toward resin production. Ethyl Corporation, a major resin producer, has integrated forward toward pipe production. Olin, another resin producer, also is a plastic pipe fabricator.
The economics of pipe shipment dictate that pipe extrusion plants be relatively small and located geographically convenient to the marketplace. Thus, this industry has a large number of plants.
A typical, modern, PVC-pipe plant produces 20 to 25 million pounds of pipe per year and has 4 to 5 extruders and a central compounding facility for blending the, raw resin powder with additives.
Pipe Fittings.
Pipe fittings, which are made by the injection molding process, are usually fabricated in relatively large single product operations. A list of the major injection molders of fittings is given in Appendix Table A-IV. Many fitting molders are also pipe producers, namely: Certain-Teed, Cantex, Charlotte Pipe, R S G Sloan Manufacturing Company, and Celanese Piping Systems. Robintech has recently broken ground on a new plant that will make molded fittings in Wetherford, Texas.
In 1974, about 97 million pounds of PVC were used in the manufacture of pipe fittings. In contrast to the pipe and conduit market, the pipe-fitting
III-9
TABLE III-6
ESTIMATED PVC CONSUMPTION IN PIPE AND CONDUIT
1973
END-USE % Communications Duct 10 Electrical Conduit 6 Pressure Pipe 68 Drain, Waste, and Vent Pipe 8 Sewer Pipe 5 Other 3Source: Modern Plastics, March 1973, p. 59.
III-10
market has grown at a considerably slower rate. From 1971 to 1973, this segment of the PVC market has grown about 9 to 10 percent per year.
2. Other Extruded Construction Products
Siding. Among the construction products, vinyl siding, which is made by extrusion, is one of the more important products. In 1974, about 100 million pounds of PVC were used in this application (see Table III-7). Most PVC siding is sold in the replacement market and in mobile homes, where it competes with aluminum siding. Recently, PVC siding also has been used in new residential construction.
The PVC siding market continues to show good growth. From 1969 to 1973, the average annual growth rate of this market was about 16%. Even in 1974, this market continued to expand.
Because siding is compact, it can be shipped more economically than pipe. Siding manufacturers typically ship from single, strategically located plants, many of which are located in the Midwest.
This industry is dominated by five large manufacturers; none are integrated backward. The top three companies in the vinyl siding business--Bird and Son, Mastic, and Crane Plastics--probably account for 35 to 45 percent of the business.
Most siding manufacturers also manufacture other extruded profiles--both rigid and flexible: For example, Bird and Son, which is the number one company in siding, also sells PVC shutters and gutters. Crane plastics, which is third in the siding industry, extrudes siding as well as 3,000 profiles. About 97% of these are rigid profiles and the remainder are flexible.
Other Profiles. The use of PVC in rigid profiles includes rainwater systems, lighting fixtures, weather stripping, and vinyl-clad window frames. About 135 million pounds of PVC were used in these applications in 1974. In 1971, a new rigid profile was marketed--foamed molding. Whereas in 1971 only about 7 million pounds of PVC were used for this application, by 1973 the market had grown to 48 million pounds. About 50% of foamed PVC molding goes into mobile homes, where it has captured about lox of the pre-finished wood molding market. B.F. Goodrich and Georgia Pacific ate major producers of this product.
The use of PVC in window frames has been a fast-growing market and, from 1969 through 1973, this usage has grown at an annual rate of about 40x. Also, during this same period, the vinyl rain-gutter market grew at an annual rate of 60%. The consumption of PVC for weather stripping and lighting fixtures has shown modest growth during this period-approximately 5 - 6% annually.
III-11
TABLE III-7
END-USE MARKET FOR SIDING AND OTHER EXTRUDED PROFILES
(1974)
END USE MM POUNDS % Siding and Panels 97 35 Lighting 13 5 Foam Moldings 48 17 Rainwater Systems 33 12 Weather Stripping 35 12 Windows, Other Profiles 53 19 TOTAL 279 100
Source: Mod. Plastics, Jan, 1973
III-12
Industry Stricture. About 8 to 9 manufacturers dominate the profile extrusion industry, accounting for about 70% of the business. However, hundreds of small companies are involved in this same activity, particularly in the manufacture of profiles.
3. Flooring
There are at least three different vinyl flooring products, and both calendering and coating processes are used. Vinyl-asbestos tile and homogeneous tile are made by the calendering process and the so-called "heterogeneous tile" is made by the coating process. Although prior to 1970 this market was dominated by vinyl-asbestos flooring, in recent years coated vinyl has made deep inroads into this market.
Market Trends. In 1974, about 140 million pounds of PVC were consumed in the manufacture of vinyl flooring made by the coating process, and about 200 million pounds of PVC were calendered into vinyl flooring. In the last few years, the growth rate for calendered flooring has slowed to. about 3% per year; in contrast, flooring made by the coating process has been growing at a rate of about 13% per year.
In 1974, the vinyl flooring market remained essentially constant. Because of the persisting trend toward the use of carpeting, the market for PVC flooring as a percentage of the total floor covering market has been declining since 1961. In 1961, PVC flooring accounted for about 50% of all basic floor coverings, whereas in 1971 it was only 30%. Growth in this market is also dependent upon the construction market.
Structure of the Industry. Vinyl flooring is produced by about 25 companies. Of these, Armstrong Cork and Kentile dominate the industry, accounting for approximately 40% of the market. (Estimates for the market shares for the major suppliers of PVC floor covering are shown in Table III-8.) With the exception of a few of the smaller companies, these companies produce a number of products other than PVC flooring, and most of the larger companies produce vinyl flooring by all three processes. With the exception of Goodyear, few of these manufacturers of vinyl floor covering are integrated backward toward resin production.
4. Wire and Cable
The major market for PVC in the wire and sable industry is construction or building wire, comprising over 50% of all PVC used in wire and cable coating. PVC is the dominant coating for this application.
Power cable carries voltages greater than 600V, and PVC is used to a minimum extent in this end application, because it lacks the required high-temperature resistance. Only about 15x of the wire and cable compound is used in this application.
III-13
TABLE III-8
MARKET SHARES FOR MAJOR SUPPLIERS OF PVC FLOOR COVERING
Share of
Total
Company (%)
Armstrong Cork 30
Kentile 12
Congoleum-Nairn 8
Ruberoid (GAF) 8
Flintkote 7
American Biltrite 6
Johns-Manville 4
Goodyear 3
Mannington Mills 3
Robbins 3
Uvalde Rock Asphalt 2
Others 12
TOTAL 100
Source: Arthur D. Little,-Inc., estimates.
III-14
Other PVC wire and cable products include flexible cord, appliances, automotive, communication and miscellaneous wire. A breakdown of usage of wire and cable products is shown in Table III-9.
Market Trends. During the past few years the consumption of PVC compounds for wire and cable applications has shown an average annual growth of about 10% However, with the drop in the construction market last year, consumption decreased from 400 million pounds in 1973 to 350 million pounds in 1974; little growth is expected in 1975.
Industry Structure. Approximately 75 companies manufacture insulated wire and cable, all of them using PVC to some extent. The major producers of PVC-insulated wire and cable are: Western Electric, General Cable, Essex Wire and Cable, Phelps Dodge, and General Electric.
Three companies dominate the construction wire market, Phelps Dodge, Anaconda, and Essex. Phelps Dodge also dominates the power-cable market, and Essex is the largest noncaptive manufacturer of automotive wire. The other major manufacturer of automotive wire is Packard Electric, a division of General Motors.
Western Electric is, by far, the major producer of communication wire, accounting for about 80% of this market. Beldon Manufacturing is an important factor in the flexible cord market, and probably accounts for 20% of this market.
No wire and cable producer is integrated backward toward resin production. On the other hand, many of these wire and cable manufacturers are subsidiaries of larger end-user companies such as General Electric, ITT, AT&T, and General Motors. In these instances, the major portion of the wire and cable products are used by the parent company, although the subsidiaries usually sell also to jobbers or to other major users of wire and cable.
5. Film and Sheet
-
a. Coated Fabrics and Unsupported Film and Sheet
Today, about 80% of the interior trim in the average automobile is vinyl. The average automobile uses about 7 pounds of PVC (on a dry basis) in the form of unsupported sheet or film and as coated fabrics. Table III-10 shows a breakdown of PVC soft trim in automobiles.
III-15
TABLE III-9
PVC WIRE AND CABLE USAGE
(1973)
WIRE TYPE %
Building and Construction 54 Communications 16 Flexible Cord and Appliances 14 Automotive and Miscellaneous 11 Power 5
Source: A. D.. Little, estimates.
III-16
TABLE III-10
PVC USAGE IN SOFT TRIM FOR AVERAGE AUTOMOBILE
ITEM WT. DRY RESIN, LBS. %
Seats 3.08 44 Vinyl Roofs 1.82 26 Door Panel 1.26 18 Head Lining 0.56 8 Crash Pad * 0.28 4 TOTAL 7.00 100.0
* ABS/PVC Blend. Contains 35% PVC
Source: Arthur D. Little estimates
III-17
Wall coverings are another major end-use for coated-PVC fabrics. About 86% of all wall covering uses PVC and about 60% 9f the wall covering market uses PVC coated fabrics. Strippable vinyl "paper", which is made from vinyl film or sheet, represents about 3% of all wall coverings.
Wood surfacing films are also made from PVC. These are usually made by the calendering process, and account for about 65% of the cabinet surfaces for television, stereo, and high fidelity sets. In 1974, approximately 130 million pounds of PVC were used for wall coverings and wood surface films.
Coated fabrics are also sold to industries that construct footwear, handbags, apparel, and luggage. (PVC accounts for about 60x of all luggage.) About 50 million pounds of PVC-coated fabrics were used in 1974 for slipover rainwear, especially women's and children's overshoes and boots, and some 40 million pounds of PVC were used in shoe uppers last year. This represents about 40% of all shoe upper production.
Outerwear apparel consumed another 66 million pounds of PVC in 1974; another 24 million pounds were used to make vinyl sheet for baby pants. During the period of 1969 to 1973, consumption of PVC for outerwear grew at an average annual rate of 14%.
Structure of the Industry. Coated fabrics and unsupported sheet can be manufactured either by the calendering or casting process. Because calendering is a very capital intensive operation, manufacturers using this process generally are very substantial companies. Only about 150 calenders are currently in operation in the United States. (Appendix Table A-VI gives a list of calendering operation in the United States.) The degree of backward integration in this end-use application is very extensive, with approximately 14 of the 22 PVC resin producers also operating calendering facilities. Most calender plants also have plastisol casting lines for short runs of specialty products.
The dominating companies in the coated fabric industry are General Tire and Uniroyal. These two top companies are followed by Union Carbide and Grace. Following this major group is one that consists of Borden, B.F. Goodrich, Booker, Bemis, Tenneco, Stauffer, Pantasote, and Plymouth Rubber. Borden and General Tire are major factors in the wall covering market, and Borden is the major-supplier of coated fabrics to the luggage market. Note, that most of these major manufacturers are also resin producers. These companies are among the 40 or so companies that manufacture coated fabrics. by the calendering process.
Ford-Motor Company and Chrysler are examples of end-users who have integrated backward toward fabrication. Ford fabricates about 80% of its needs, and Chrysler fabricates a smaller portion. Their calender operations service only the automotive industry.
III-18
Companies using the casting process alone for coated fabrics are more numerous. These companies are generally considerably smaller than those who have calender lines.
b. Packaging Film and Sheet
Market Trends. About 125 to 135 million pounds of PVC were used in 1973 in the fabrication of highly plasticized film for packaging applications; about 80 million pounds were used in rigid sheet. Rigid sheet is manufactured primarily by the calendering process and the remainder by extrusion. Most rigid packaging film is made by blown-film extrusion, with a small amount made by the solvent casting process. Rigid sheet is used in a variety of packaging applications. About 70% of the calendered rigid sheet is used in "blister packaging", with the remainder used in such packaging applications as lids, which are thermoformed from rigid sheet.
Flexible PVC film is used primarily for meat and produce wrapping. About 90 million pounds of PVC were used in 1973 in the manufacture of self= service meat wrap and about 25 million pounds for fresh produce wrap. The remainder was used for a variety of food wraps--for the householder and institutions.
From 1969 to 1973, the market for flexible PVC packaging film grew at an average annual rate of 5%. Rigid PVC sheet in packaging applications grew at an average annual rate of 11%
Structure of the Industry.
Goodyear, Filmco (a division of RJR), and Borden are the major companies manufacturing PVC film by the blown-film process. These three companies account for 70--to, 80x of this market. Ethyl Corporation and Union Carbide also. manufacture film by this process.
Note that most of these fabricators are also resin producers.Three Manufacturers produce PVC film by solvent cast system. These manufacturers include Reynolds Metals, Goodyear, and Cast Vinyl Film, Inc. A list of manufacturers of flexible and rigid film and sheet appears in Appendix Tables A-VII, VIII, and IX. Manufacturers of cast PVC film are listed in Appendix Table A-X.
6. Bottles
Markets. In 1966, only 11 million pounds of PVC were consumed in blow molding bottles. By 1973, consumption rose to 87 million pounds. From 1971 to 1973, the average annual growth rate was about 60%. This growth was arrested in 1974, when consumption dropped to about 75 million pounds because of restrictions placed on the industry by OSHA. The FDA is currently examining the health risks of vinyl chloride monomer, because the monomer may contaminate products packaged in PVC bottles. To date, these tests have not been completed.III-19
Because of these uncertainties, some PVC bottle fabricators have decided to delay expansion plans. We know of at least two companies that were planning to construct new plants in 1974, and because of these uncertainties, their plans have been postponed. At this time, most PVC bottle fabricators are also examining substitute materials, such as the nitrile polymers.
Structure of the Industry. The number one company in this industry is Imco (Ethyl Corporation); the other major bottle fabricators are Continental Can, Anchor Hocking, Aim Packaging, National Can, Johnson and Johnson and perhaps 20 smaller companies. The top five companies account for 60% of the business. Ethyl Corporation is the one example of a fabricator that is integrated backward. Johnson and Johnson and Breck are examples of fabricators who are integrated forward to the end user.
A typical small company in this sector operates one plant with 4 to 6 blow-molding machines. The larger companies operate at least two plants with a total of 15 to 25 blow-molding machines. Only two resin producers supply this segment--Ethyl Corporation and Hooker Chemical (Division of Occidental Petroleum).
7. Phonograph Records
Market. Phonograph record manufacturers produce both 12" and 7" records. All 12" records are made from vinyl chloride-vinyl acetate copolymers sometimes combined a small amount of low-molecular-weight homopolymer.
In contrast, only about half of 7" records are based on vinyl chloride copolymers. Lower quality records are made from polystyrene.
The PVC record fabrication industry has shown little growth over the years. Estimates for the domestic consumption of PVC for this end-use vary. Although Modern Plastics indicates that about140 million pounds of PVC were consumed in record fabrication in 1974, our contacts with the industry have indicated that the real figure is between 100 and 125 million pounds. From 1971 to 1973, the average annual growth of this market was only about 2%
Structure of the Industry. The three major record companies in the U. S. are: Columbia, RCA and Capitol, accounting for about 40% of U. S. production.,-, Columbia is-the number one company in this segment. The chief supplier o_ resins to the record industry `is Tenneco. Keyser-Century Corporation, which sells compounds mostly on the West Coast, also is a major supplier. Relatively small suppliers to this industry are Borden and Air Products. In the near future, Firestone may also supply this market. None of these manufacturers are' integrated backward; moat are end-users who also sell to jobbers.
8. Closures
Glass-Container Closures. Essentially all vacuum closures use a plastisol liner or gasket; only about 6X continue to use rubber latex for this application. Plastisol liners are also used in many non-vacuum closures. About 30% of the non-vacuum metal caps used for glass food containers are made with plastisol liners and about 60% of the closures used in non-food applications are based on plastisol. Furthermore, about 40% of the glass containers used for home canning use plastisol-lined closures. In total, about 17 million pounds of dry resin were used in this application in 1974.
Continental can (White Cap Division) is by far the major company in this segment, accounting for about 70% of this business. Others are Duraglass, Anchor Hocking, Owens-Illinois, Kerr, and Ball Corporation. There are few companies in this sector because the capital investment is high and the demand is relatively modest. Anchor Hocking, Ovens-Illinois, and Continental Can combined account for about 90% of this business activity. With the exception of Continental Can Company, all of the manufacturers of plastisol liners are integrated with glass container manufacturing.
Beverage Crown Caps. About 80% to 90% of all metal beverage crown caps use PVC compound, the remainder using cork. This end-use market consumes about 8 to 10 million pounds of dry resin or 15 to 20 million pounds of plastisol.
No more than six manufacturers supply this market. The number on company is Crown, Cork and Seal; the other major companies are Zapata, Kerr, and National Can. These top four probably account for about 95% of the business. Zapata uses flexible compound rather than plastisol to manufacture the gaskets.
Roll-on Gaskets. All roll-on or "convenience" closures for beverage containers use PVC cut either from sheet or tape. About 5 million pounds of PVC resin are used in this application. Most manufacturers cut the gaskets from the tape, insert them into the closure, and form the gasket in place. Only about 10% of the industry uses a plastisol compound. Alcoa is the major manufacturer in this segment, second is Owens-Illinois, followed by Zapata nd National Can. Crown, Cork and Seal also manufacture roll-on gaskets using plastisol.
9. Vinyl Enamels
Market Trends. About 30 million pounds of PVC,' on a dry-resin basis, are consumed in can and closure coating applications. This corresponds to about 18 million gallons of PVC solution.
Another 15 million pounds of PVC, or 9 million gallons, are used in the solution form for a variety of metal coating applications. Typical applications include finishes for appliances, collapsible tubes, electrical wire and apparatus, nonelectrical machinery, metal furniture, pre-finished metal sheet, strip or coil which is subsequently formed into appliance , parts, automobile dashboard panels, caps for bottles, metal building panels, and other metal parts.
III-21
Still another application for PVC enamels is in maintenance and marine-coating systems. This application includes primers and top coats for pipes, tanks, structural metal used in chemical plants, oil refineries, etc. Vinyl maintenance coatings are also used on bridges, dams, and locks. Marine applications include the coating of both the hull and superstructure of merchant and military ships. This application consumes about 10 million pounds of PVC on a dry-resin basis, which corresponds to about 6 million gallons of solution.
Another 10 million pounds of PVC (about 7 million gallons of enamels) were consumed in miscellaneous coatings. Included in this category are coatings for concrete and masonry, film and foil, leather, magnetic tape, paper, plastics and wood products. In many of these applications vinyls are used in combination with other resin systems.
Structure of the Industry. Among the major producers of PVC enamel solution coatings for cans and closures are American Can Company (M 6 T Chemicals Division), Glidden, Mobil, DeSoto, the Dexeter Corporation (Midland Division), Inmont, and PPG Industries. The major supplier of the dry resins used in the formulation of enamels is Union Carbide Corporation. UCC sells primarily solution-polymerized resins for these coating applications.
These coatings are applied primarily by can manufacturers, who either coat coil or sheet for endstock, or spray coat the can bodies. Alcoa also coats a small portion of the can sheet stock with a modified vinyl enamel.
Many paint companies supply vinyl coatings for maintenance and marine applications. Among the 12 largest industrial coating companies, the following are major suppliers of these vinyl coating enamels: Celanese, DuPont, Glidden, Mobil, PPG Industries, Reliance Universal, and Sherwin-Williams.
D. FUTURE TRENDS
Domestic PVC sales dropped last year for the first time, dropping about 3% between 1973 and 1974, with the biggest declines coming in automotive construction-related markets. Prediction of sales for the next five years is extremely risky at this time. The PVC industry, like others is presently suffering from a drop in demand due to the present recession. The depth of this recession and its length are questions that are being actively debated by economists today and the role the Government will take in combating this condition is uncertain. No doubt, we will see little growth in the market for PVC products in 1975.
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Further complicating any forecast is the impact of the new OSHA requirements on the PVC resin producers and fabricators. For example, last year Goodyear closed one of their plants on the grounds that it would be economically unfeasible to bring the plant into compliance with OSHA exposure standards. We expect that additional plant closings, especially old plants, will be announced in the coming year. In January 1975, the nameplate capacity for PVC resins in this country was slightly less than 6 billion pounds. Closing of these plants will reduce this capacity and restrict supply. Furthermore, resin producers will have to meet the OSHA standards and possibly new standards developed by EPA and the FDA. All of these factors will tend to increase the cost of manufacturing PVC resins. Consequently, in the future, PVC say no longer hold its number two position among the plastic resins in this country.
Published forecasts for the year 1980 vary widely. Some suggest that the PVC resin production could increase to as much as 8.5 billion pounds (Peter Sherwood Associates, 1974) or as low as 6.8 billion pounds (Foster D. Snell Report to OSHA, 1974). We believe that even the low forecast is somewhat optimistic.
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E. SUBSTITUTION OF OTHER RAW MATERIALS FOR PVC RESIN
Because of the versatility of PVC resin, it would be difficult to duplicate
the exact properties of vinyl plastic products by using substitute raw
materials. Even if it were possible to make an "equivalent or
acceptable" substitute product, the costs of production and the resulting
selling prices of the final products would in most instances be greater than
those products made from PVC. In many cases, such costs and prices would likely
be prohibitive and would essentially price the substitute product out of the
market. Some of the more useful substitute materials are now made only in small
quantities relative to PVC and thus would be in very short supply.
Assuming, however, that substitute raw materials will be available in sufficient
quantity when needed, and that the physical capacity to produce the additional
non-vinyl chloride based end products would be operating when required (which is
most unlikely), considerable research and development would still be needed to
effect the required changes in product, process, and equipment design. In
addition, time would be required for delivery and installation of new equipment
to make the vinyl substitute products on a commercial scale. This latter stage
could in itself take up to two years. Based solely on technological factors, we
believe that substitute products which would take the longest lead time to
develop are those products required by the construction and motor vehicle
industries. Such products include: insulated wire and cable for communication,
building and automotive uses, pipe, flooring, automotive upholstery, and related
soft trim materials.
A discussion of substitution for PVC is presented below according to the major PVC product lines.
1. Pipe, Conduit, and Fittings
PVC pipe has established itself in the marketplace because it has good chemical and corrosion resistance, is non-flammable, rigid, and is easy to install.- The price is also relatively low. In some pressure pipe markets (e.g., gas distribution) polyethylene could be used. ABS resin, which has a higher price and lacks chemical and flame resistance, is another substitute material, especially for DWV (drain, waste, and vent) pipe for. home construction. ABS could also be used in place of PVC in electrical and communication conduit and sewer pipe. Technically, it may be possible that ABS could substitute for 20-25x of the PVC pipe market; however, this would increase the total ABS resin market by roughly one-third, and the resin would not be available in this quantity for this market for at least 2-3 years. Again, from a technical point of view, some of the PVC pipe markets could conceivably be satisified by metal pipe. However, the metal pipe industry is itself operating at capacity and likewise could not supply the replaced PVC pipe market in less than two years.
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Automotive. In the absence of PVC, the preferred approach for substitution of vinyl coated fabric for automotive upholstery would probably be to use another synthetic resin such as polyurethane. (Another possible substitute, of course, would be conventional uncoated textile upholstery fabrics such as those based on nylon and polyester blends, which today represent only a small percentage of the automotive market. However, even assuming that the nylon and polyester fibers were available in ample supply, the textile products industry would still need at least two years to install the necessary equipment to manufacture the quantities of such upholstery fabrics which would be required by the auto producers.)
Polyurethane-based coated fabrics are not as easily calendered as are the PVC
based products. Coated polyurethane fabrics made by the casting process are now
used in the apparel and furniture upholstery markets. where they are considered
"deluxe" products. Polyurethane coated fabrics are now being used
selectively in the automotive industry in Europe, and are presently being tested
by the U.S. auto makers. Because the price of urethane compounds is about four
times that of PVC compound, the price of urethane-based coated fabrics are
substantially higher than PVC-coated fabrics. Nonetheless, this approach might
be preferred because, as mentioned above, most present fabricators of PVC-coated
fabrics use calendering equipment.
According to our industry contacts, polyurethane-coated fabrics should have
adequate properties to meet the performance required of them in this
application. Polyurethanes, in general, lack good UV stability, but some
materials are now available that can meet this requirement. Some properties of
polyurethanes are superior to those of PVC. For example, polyurethanes have
better abrasion than PVC; consequently, thinner coatings can be used to produce
equivalent properties. Alva-Tech, Inc., has developed a non-solvent polyurethane
coating, which can be run on a conventional plastisol casting line and which
they claim is competitive with vinyl coatings, if a thinner coating is used.
Goodrich also has developed a new thermoplastic elastomer, called
"Telcar", which perhaps could be used as a fabric coating.
The use of polyurethane-coated fabrics made by the casting process as a substitute for PVC-coated fabrics would require a research and design period of about one year to meet the needs of the motor vehicle industry. Since casting is not the process used by most of the coated fabrics industry, several new facilities using different equipment would also have to be constructed. For example, the conventional urethane casting process would require special drying ovens because the polyurethanes are applied as a solution from which the solvent must be removed. (This is not the case with PVC plastisol casting or the new material from Alva-Tech.) Disregarding polyurethane material shortages which are significant, 1824 months would be needed to install the necessary casting facilities to handle this market. Moreover, because the production rate for the casting process is considerably slower than the calendering process, larger casting facilities would be
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needed in place of the existing PVC calendering facilities to meet demand. Thus, from a technology viewpoint alone, the casting process approach could require at least 2-3 years to meet demand.
On the other hand, if the polyurethanes were processed by the calendering process, at least two years of research and design period would be required. While a few polyurethanes are available today that can be calendered, more research will be needed to develop the specific polyurethanes needed by the motor vehicle industry. We estimate, therefore,-that if the calendering process were selected as the preferred approach, the polyurethane substitute coated fabric could be at least four years away from commercialization. Most industry respondents also agree that polyurethanes designed for calendering would process at a slower production rate than PVC. Nonetheless, this approach might be preferred because, as mentioned above, most present fabricators of PVC-coated fabrics use calendering equipment.
Rohm and Haas has recently developed a new product, based on foamed acrylate which could also compete with high-priced coated vinyls, although at this time it is only in the developmental stage. Rohm and Haas is currently seeking potential licensees who would manufacture this product called "Ayrcryl".
Chlorinated polyethylene (CPE) is another possible substitute material, although its present output and availability is very limited. This product has the advantage that it can be calendered in much the same manner as the present calender-grade PVC. In the opinion of fabricators who have worked with this resin, the product is close to meeting most existing PVC specifications for automotive upholstery. However, CPE does not have the necessary low-temperature flexibility needed by the motor vehicle manufacturers. Furthermore, it is more difficult to calender PVC and some have estimated that the production rate would be slowed by as much as 20%. Still another possible substitute for PVC in this application is ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA). This product also can be calendered but, again, it lacks the necessary low-temperature flexibility. Because EVA, in contrast to PVC and CPE, lacks inherent flame resistance, it has to be especially formulated to meet this requirement. Thus, substituting EVA or CPE for PVC would mean some sacrificing of performance. Furthermore, these substitute products would still require about three years to reach commercialization, again assuming the raw materials were available.
Fabricators and motor vehicle manufacturers are also developing new methods for manufacturing motor vehicle seats--methods 'which would not require coated fabrics. For example, one promising approach is the manufacture of one-piece molded seats using foam polyurethanes with an external skin; the boating industry is currently using products of this type. However, this approach will require considerably more research and development time than the approaches described above in order to replace PVC-based automotive upholstery fabrics.
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Furniture. The preferred substitute for PVC in coated fabrics for furniture again appears to be the polyurethane. Polyurethane-coated fabrics are used commercially today as furniture upholstery material. However, it is still only a small part of the market compared to PVC-coated fabrics. At the present time, most of these urethane-coated fabrics are made by the solution casting process. As discussed above, a series of relatively new urethane polymers have become available that can be calendered, and cast in much the same way as plastisols. The product design period for the changeover from PVC to polyurethane in this market should be no more than one year. Following that, modification of the existing equipment and the installation of some new equipment should be able to take place within one additional year. Thus, the time lag for PVC substitution in this application would be about two years, assuming that the polyurethane resins were then available.
Manufacturers of PVC-based furniture upholstery, like the automotive upholstery industry, have also considered other substitute materials. Ethylene-vinyl acetate polymer is one other candidate material. Though it can be calendered and formulated to meet most property requirements, it lacks low-temperature flexibility. Chlorinated polyethylene has been used, but it would have similar deficiencies. "Ayrcryl" is another- potential substitute.
Flooring. Because of the unusual ability of PVC resin to be made into a variety of colors (including pastels), surface finishes ("shiny" or dull), degrees of hardness, and the fact that PVC possesses excellent chemical and flame resistance, it would essentially be impossible to duplicate the same line of vinyl flooring products now on the market by using other synthetic or natural polymers. New facilities would have to be built to produce much larger quantities of linoleum and asphalt tile if the consumer would indeed go back to using these inferior products. It is more likely that most of the hard surface plastic flooring market would be replaced by soft carpeting rather than with these "outmoded" resilient flooring materials.
2. Wire and Cable
Building Wire. PVC was originally selected as the preferred material for the application because of its low cost (which derives in part from its "easy" processability), excellent flame resistance, good low-temperature flexibility and colorability (e.g., for coding), in addition to desirable electrical insulation properties. If PVC were no longer available, a major constraint that would inhibit the introduction-of a substitute material would be the existing building codes. Although most of the codes involve performance specifications, they essentially restrict the material to PVC, because they specify performance requirements, such as flame resistance and flammability, that only PVC can meet.
The easiest substitute approach would be to use polyethylene plastics. Although thin material lacks the inherent flame resistance of PVC, the industry believes that, given sufficient time, polyethylene could be formulated to meet this requirement. However, even "flame resistant" polyethylene does not satisfy the operating temperatures required in many
III-27
building-wire applications. Although "flame-resistant" polyethylene could be used in most homes, it would probably be unsatisfactory in many industrial, commercial, and institutional applications where relatively high service temperatures are required. Polyethylene is also less flexible than PVC, a major disadvantage in household wiring. One approach might be to use thinner coatings to get improved flexibility; however,-this might result in unsatisfactory insulation value.
Another possible PVC substitute would be EPA (ethylene-propylene-rubber) with an outer coating of (chlorosulfonated polyethylene) or neoprene. By itself, EPR is too soft for many applications and does not have the required resistance; therefore the Hypalon or neoprene coating would be required. These materials would impart the necessary flame resistance. Although Hypalon or neoprene alone would fulfill many of the property requirements, these materials are much more expensive and are not available in the quantities required. Neoprene would be satisfactory in many building-wire applications, but it lacks the necessary abrasion resistance required in several non-building construction applications. Another potential substitute material is cross-linked polyethylene (XPE), a thermosetting material Again, XPE would have to be formulated to meet the flame resistance requirements; otherwise, it would have most of the other necessary properties, including the relatively high-service-temperature property. However, is a-rigid material, which would limit its use significantly in this market.
Assuming that the constraint of the building codes was removed and that sufficient amount of the substitute materials were available (again essentially impossible today from a physical capacity viewpoint), the redesigning of the substitute product would take up to two years, depending upon which substitute materials were selected. Even if the "easiest" approach were taken, such as using polyethylene, the existing extruding equipment would have to be modified (e.g., new and different screws would be needed). If a thermoset material, such as Hypalon, were selected, then considerably new auxiliary equipment and facilities also would be required. Therefore, depending upon which material was selected, the total time needed to commercialize substitute building wire products would be from two to four years. Achieving the needed raw material capacity would take much longer.
Automotive Wire and Cable. The average passenger car uses about ten pounds of PVC compound as insulating material for wire and cable; although small in terms of weight percent, this is a very necessary product. According to the industry, the best substitute material .would be polyethylene. Ordinary polyethylene has an operating temperature somewhat lower than PVC. In most instances, therefore, the auto industry would require crosslinked polyethylene (XPE), which is used in some automotive wire applications today. The crosslinked variety of polyethylene has an operating temperature of 150°C (compared with a rated operating temperature of 105°C). Polyethylene itself will not meet the existing flame-resistance requirements, but can be satisfactorily formulated to meet these requirements. However, substituting polyethylene would mean giving up other performance requirements such as flexibility.
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Because crosslinked polyethylene wire is a commercial product today, the redesign period would be relatively short--perhaps about six months--if crosslinked polyethylene were used as a substitute. However, this material is processed differently from PVC, and the need for additional equipment and space would introduce an additional time lag of 12-24 months. While the existing PVC extruders could be used in the fabricating operation, the processors would have to change the extruder screw and, more significantly, would have to add new curing lines. Curing of crosslinking polyethylene requires heat and, therefore more space and, obviously, more steam would be needed than is the case with PVC products. Furthermore, substituting crosslinked polyethylene would also reduce productivity--perhaps by as much as one-third. Consequently, additional extruding equipment also would be needed. In summary, it is estimated that substituting XPE for PVC in automotive wire applications would require about two years.
Communication Wire. Flexible PVC compound is widely used as the wire insulation is primarily used inside buildings--commercial, industrial, and residential--and consequently must meet local building codes. PVC is the preferred material in this application because of its overall cost/performance characteristics, its relatively high-temperature resistance, and its good flexibility and colorability. Perhaps most important, because it is used inside buildings, PVC is preferred because it meets the necessary flame-resistance requirements. Neoprene and Hypalon could substitute for PVC in many of the existing applications. Neoprene could probably meet all of the existing requirements met by PVC insulation today, even though its electrical properties are slightly inferior to those of PVC. Hypalon also can be considered a good substitute material. But Hypalon and neoprene rubbers are thermoset materials that would require new processing equipment. A thermoplastic material would be preferred.
Polyethylene could be used in many applications if it were formulated to meet the flame-resistant requirements. (Chlorinated polyethylene might also be used, if it were available in the quantities needed to satisfy this large market.) The best approach would be to substitute appropriately formulated polyethylene for many of the current applications that use PVC and use neoprene as the substitute material for those applications that cannot be served by polyethylene alone.
Again, disregarding the constraint introduced by the need to change the existing building code requirements, extensive research and development would be needed to develop the substitute insulation material for communication wire. The specifications for materials used in this application are very stringent. Thus,- research and development required to develop a neoprene substitute product would probably involve at least a two-year period. Neoprene would also require different processing equipment. Therefore, another two years would be needed to install the new facilities and build the additional space to manufacture the neoprene-insulated wire. The design and development period for the polyethylene substitute material would be somewhat shorter. The total time lag for substituting PVC in this application is estimated to be from three to four years.
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4. Packaging
Meat Wrapping. At the present time, flexible PVC is essentially the
only wrapping film used for fresh meat. In the past, cellophane was used, and
can therefore be considered a potential substitute material. However, the
manufacturing process required to make cellophane film is completely different
from that used to fabricate PVC film. New facilities might be needed to
manufacture the additional cellophane film, because at the present time most
cellophane manufacturing facilities are relatively antiquated. Two to three
years would be needed to construct these facilities.
Cellophane would meet most of the existing performance requirements; however, it
is not as flexible as PVC. Other substitutes for PVC in this application might
be polyethylene and ethylene-vinyl acetate resins. However, these alternatives
are not very acceptable, because they are inferior to PVC with respect to
clarity and oxygen-transmission properties.
Can Coatings. Most metal cans have an internal coating to protect the
contents of the can from metal contamination, and, in some instances, to protect
the metal from corrosion. In food canning applications, a variety of coatings
are used, including vinyl chloride-based copolymers. Other coating materials
used for these purposes include olefin resins, phenolics, and epoxy resins; some
polybutadiene resins are also used in beverage cans.
Polyvinyl chloride-based resins have been used primarily because of their
flexibility--a property that is important in the manufacture of two-piece metal
cans that are "deep drawn". The industry could use epoxy resins as a
substitute product in this application because it would require a minimum of new
equipment. However, the use of epoxy resins, will slow production somewhat for
it is more difficult to spray; most two-piece cans are sprayed while three-piece
cans are coated by a roll coating process. Although epoxy resins are generally
acceptable in beverage and food cans, these resins may sometimes introduce a
flavor problem. From this point of view, polybutadiene coatings would likely be
preferred for beverage containers because they impart little or no taste.
Assuming that epoxy resins were commercially available, the time required for
the changeover would be minimal--less than one year.
Recently PPG Industries introduced a new can-coating product based on acrylics that can potentially replace the vinyl enamel system. The new product called."Environ-1776", is now under test in beer cans.
PVC coatings are also used in the manufacture of some composite (paper-foil) cans used for foods. Here, it is typically used as a slip coating on aluminum foil, and provides heat sealability. In this case, the industry has substitute products under development and, if PVC were not available, these products could be introduced within 6-12 months.
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Crowns and Closures. Most beverage crowns use a PVC plastisol compound as a gasket to provide the necessary seal to keep the content of the bottle fresh for long periods of time. Cork can be used, but it is imported, and is expensive and difficult to obtain. The new convenience "roll-on" closures for beverage bottles also use a plastisol compound as a liner material. Although cork is a possible substitute material for this application, realistically, it is not preferred. The use of a cork liner requires very different equipment than that which is used to apply the plastisol liners. At the present time, substitute products are under development, and one manufacturer has developed a new ethylene-based elastomer material which is currently in use in Europe. However, to utilize this new material new equipment would be required and installation of this equipment would introduce a time lag of about one year.
Plastisol materials are also widely used as liners for the wide-mouth jar closures. In this case, the best substitute product would be a rubber latex material, such as a natural or an SBR rubber. Some rubber latices are presently used in this application, and therefore a changeover to this substitute material could be carried out with a minimum of research and development time. (Sealing products in these applications, of course, must meet FDA requirements.) The equipment required to manufacture closure liners based on rubber latex is different from that required for the manufacture of plastisol liners. Consequently, about one to two years would be required to obtain the necessary equipment in-place. Furthermore, the process that uses rubber latex is considerably slower than that used for plastisol. Therefore, the production rate would be cut substantially. However, for the most part, these products would not meet the existing performance requirements. Although rubber does have adequate sealing capabilities in many applications, there are some applications where it does not. Also, in some of the high-temperature processes required during the bottling of food, rubber is not as good as plastisol. In addition rubber often has "cut through" problems and can introduce taste changes.
In the case of non-vacuum closures, substitution will be much easier. Here, plastisol is not used as widely, and rubber or coated paper inserts can provide satisfactory performance.
Table III-11 presents a summary of the primary substitution materials for PVC resin and the time required to substitute them in the different major end uses.III-31
Primary Substitute Total Time Required
PVC Based Product Raw Material Candidates for Substitution (a)
(years)
Pipe ABS, Polyethylene Metal 1-2
Conduit ABS, Polyethylene Metal 1-2
Flooring
Tile Coumarone-indene resin, SBR 2-3
Yard Goods Linseed oil (for linoleum) 3-4
Upholstery Material
(Coated fabrics) Polyurethane, CPE, "Ayrcryl" 2-3
Automotive Polyurethane, CPE, "Ayrcryl" 2-3
Furniture Polyurethane, CPE, "Ayrcryl" 1-2
Wire Insulation Polyethylene, Neoprene, HYPALON, 2-4
EPR
Phonograph Records Polystyrene 3-4
Siding Wood, metal (steel, aluminum) 1-2
Packaging Materials
Flexible Film Cellophane 1-2
Rigid Film Cellulosic resin, polystyrene, 1-2
nitrile resin
Bottles Nitrile resin, glass 1-2
Cap liners Cork, rubber 1-2
Can linings Epoxy resin, acrylic coating 1-2
Medical Tubing Rubber (e.g., thermoplastic 1-2
elastomer)
(a) Assumes that (1) sufficient quantities of substitute raw materials would be available when required by market demand; (2) production facilities are in place and operating at time required.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates
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