The State of Nuclear Powers

Wall Street Journal 3mar2006

Compiled by Deborah Creighton Skinner. Sources: WSJ, Associated Press,
Nuclear Threat Initiative, Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists

Negotitaions to end nuclear proliferation have yielded some successes. After months of talks, India has reached a tentative nuclear agreement with the U.S. to allow international oversight of much of India's nuclear-power industry.

Iran and Moscow recently ended talks without reaching a deal on a Russia plan to defuse concerns over Iran's nuclear program. The United Nations Security Council will take up Iran's case when it meets March 6.

The world's nuclear powers consider themselves bound by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, a global accord initiated in 1968 that provides access to civilian nuclear technology for signers who promise not to pursue nuclear weapons. The same equipment that produces nuclear fuel can also produce material for a bomb.

France, Russia & United Kingdom

FRANCE: Although France has scaled down and modernized its nuclear forces since the end of the Cold War, including ceasing production of plutonium in 1992 and highly enriched uranium in 1996, France still retains a significant nuclear capability. The country has about 350 nuclear warheads.

RUSSIA: Russia, thanks to a Cold War buildup, is thought to have about 5,000 operational strategic warheads, 3,500 operational tactical warheads, and 11,000 stockpiled strategic and tactical warheads. (Tactical weapons, meant for the battlefield, are weaker than strategic weapons.) Despite improved relations since the end of the Cold War, the Bush administration hasn't been able to persuade Moscow to renounce its competitive nuclear stance.

UNITED KINGDOM: Britain has fewer than 200 operationally available warheads, a 70% reduction in firepower since the Cold War. The country also has one nuclear submarine on patrol at any given time, carrying a payload of 48 warheads.

United States

The U.S., which built up its arsenal during the arms race with the Soviet Union, has more than 5,000 strategic warheads, more than 1,000 operational tactical weapons and approximately 3,000 reserve and tactical warheads. Despite a U.S. call for a continued moratorium on nuclear testing, the Senate has refused to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, saying compliance by all parties isn't verifiable, and the U.S. is continuing its own research into new nuclear weapons. The U.S. has succeeded in signing up new countries to join its Proliferation Security Initiative, a group of 60 countries committed to halting the shipment of dangerous weapons. That group had its first big success in fall of 2003, when the U.S. worked with Germany and Italy to block a shipment of centrifuge parts bound for Libya.

India & Pakistan

INDIA: President Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh signed a nuclear deal that should ease the tense relations between the two nations. Under the agreement, the U.S. will share nuclear reactors, fuel and expertise with the energy-starved nation in return for its acceptance of international safeguards. India agreed to separate its entwined nuclear industry -- declaring 14 reactors as commercial facilities and eight as military -- and put all of its future civilian production under international oversight. The deal, which has been in talks for eight months, must be approved by Congress, and Mr. Bush acknowledged that might be difficult because of India's refusal to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

PAKISTAN: Pakistan was the first Muslim nation to acquire nuclear-weapon capability, and Islamabad regards nuclear weapons as essential to its balance of power against India. Pakistan is thought to have stockpiled enough highly enriched uranium to build 30 to 50 nuclear bombs. The Pentagon believes Islamabad stores its weapons in component form and could assemble weapons "fairly quickly." Pakistan hasn't signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

North Korea & China

NORTH KOREA: In early January 2006, leader Kim Jong Il said that he will push forward with multilateral talks aimed at dismantling his country's nuclear-weapons programs. During the last round of negotiations with the U.S., China, Japan, Russia and South Korea, Pyongyang pledged to give up atomic weapons and existing nuclear programs in exchange for economic and energy assistance and security guarantees from the five parties. North Korea denies having a uranium-enrichment program -- Washington insists it does -- but has declared it has nuclear weapons; neither claim has been independently confirmed. Economic support from China and South Korea may have hindered U.S. efforts to pressure Pyongyang into cutting a deal. North Korea withdrew from the NPT in 2003.

CHINA: Beijing has about 300 strategic warheads, 120 ballistic missiles and enough material to produce a much larger arsenal. China, which agreed to the Nuclear Nonprofileration Treaty in 1992, has improved its export controls and has pledged to halt exports of nuclear technology. How military modernization efforts will ultimately reshape China's strategic nuclear capabilities remains uncertain.

Undeclared

IRAN: Iranian negotiators were set to meet their European counterparts after they failed to reach an deal with Moscow to set up a joint uranium-enrichment facility on Russian soil, a move that would increase international monitoring of Iran's nuclear efforts. The IAEA's board of governors plan to meet later this month to consider what to do about Iran's recent resumption of nuclear activity, after the nation broke the IAEA's seals on its Natanz facility in January. The meeting could start a process leading to sanctions by the United Nations Security Council. Iran has repeatedly said it won't give up its rights under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which allows the country access to peaceful nuclear technology.

ISRAEL: Israel is believed to have the most advanced nuclear weapons program in the Middle East, with estimated holdings of between 75 to 200 nuclear warheads. But officials have refused to comment on nuclear arms and say they will address disarmament only after a comprehensive Middle Eastern peace is obtained. The government has denied international inspection of its Negev Nuclear Research Center.