London -- BP Amoco Plc, the third-largest publicly traded oil company, on Tuesday probably will become the industry's latest to report record third-quarter earnings, mainly because of higher crude oil and natural gas prices, analysts said.

BP probably made $3.82 billion, excluding goodwill charges from the $33.1 billion purchase of Atlantic Richfield Co., according to eight analysts polled by Bloomberg News. Profit from operations was $1.96 billion in the same period a year earlier, which excluded the newly acquired Arco and Burmah Castrol Plc.

The average price of crude oil was almost 50 percent higher in the third quarter than the same period last year, boosting earnings for rivals such as Exxon Mobil Corp. Yet expectations oil prices will drop as exporting countries raise output are dimming the outlook, overshadowing excellent results, analysts said.

``Investors are understandably concerned they have seen the best the industry has to offer,'' said SG Securities in a research note. ``With the significance of these strong performances rooted firmly in the past, the outlook is as challenging as ever.''

BP is scheduled to release its results at 11:30 a.m. London time on Tuesday. Profit from Burmah Castrol Plc, which BP bought for 3.4 billion pounds ($5.2 billion) in July, will appear in BP's figures for the first time in the third quarter.

The London-based company is the last of the world's three biggest non-state oil companies to report third-quarter figures. Record earnings that beat expectations at Exxon, the largest, were greeted with a 2.6 percent decline in its stock price.

Royal Dutch/Shell Group, the second-biggest, last week reported record earnings, though at the low end of expectations, and its shares fell 3.6 percent. Shell said oil prices may decline next year as exporting nations raise output, and Mark Moody- Stuart, Shell's chairman, spoke of ``leaner periods'' in future.

Takeovers

Crude oil in London averaged $30.40 a barrel in the quarter, up from $20.64 a year ago, driving profit higher. BP, more exposed to U.S. natural gas prices than Shell, will also benefit as prices there were on average 75 percent higher than in the year-earlier period. Higher refinery profit margins will also help, analysts said.

``BP has a very good position in U.S. gas, and it is probably better positioned than Shell on the refining side,'' said Jurjen Lunshof, an analyst at Credit Lyonnais Securities Europe.

Global profit margins for making fuels soared to $3.50 a barrel in the first nine months, compared with 60 cents per barrel a year earlier, Fortum Oyj, the second-largest Nordic electricity producer, said Friday when reporting its third-quarter profit.

BP's earnings estimates are calculated on a replacement cost basis, taking into account the cost of replacing the company's oil reserves at current oil prices and stripping out one-time items.

Individual analysts' estimates of profit ranged from $3.6 billion to $4 billion excluding goodwill charges, which may amount to between $296 million and $500 million, the analysts forecast.