What is in the Future for GM Foods in the UK?

Nutrition and Food Science Vol 31, No 1, 2001

Barbour Index Environmental Health Briefing 25jan01

`Nutrition and Food Science' has reported on the findings of an Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) workshop which was carried out to examine possible future scenarios for GM foods.

IGD is the leading business research and training organisation in the UK food industry, with a membership drawn from across the food supply chain. Consideration was given to the following four scenarios:

1. Market rejection of GM products

2. Development of niche markets for GM products

3. GM products become mainstream markets

4. Complete market acceptance of GM technology.

• Conclusion

Consideration was given to three broad types of GM products:

• products that deliver consumer benefits, such as the removal of allergens, enhancement of micronutrient content, etc

• products that deliver producer benefits, such as reducing the need for agrochemicals, producing higher crop yields, etc

• animal products involving GM technology - leading to increased growth rate, greater resistance to disease, etc.

The main conclusions of the workshop were as follows:

Scenario 1 - market rejection of GM products

This is the current scenario in the UK. IGD research conducted in 1998 and 1999 showed that, by Spring 1999, more than 50% of consumers were concerned about GM foods. Consumer concern was so widespread around this time that retailers and manufacturers removed GM soya ingredients from products.

There may be further consumer rejection of GM technology, as campaign groups continue to push for the removal of GM crops from animal feed, and for the removal of other ingredients produced using GM technology, such as additives, enzymes, processing aids, vaccinations, etc.

It is likely that the strength of anti-GM sentiment will depend on events elsewhere in the world. Trade pressure may come to bear on the UK and EU if they are alone in rejecting GM products and, if farmers in other countries take-up the technology, it might become very difficult for UK food producers to find non-GM sources. Conversely, if the UK position is mirrored around the world, the world market may reject GM products.

Scenario 2: niche markets for GM products

IGD research from 1997 indicates that consumers are more likely to accept GM products if they offer a direct consumer benefit such as enhanced vitamin content or modified fat content.

The research also suggested that products involving animals would be least acceptable to consumers.

For GM products to become established as a niche market, it is envisaged that the following may be needed:

• Delivery of products with overwhelming consumer benefits that cannot be met by any other production method

• Products for which non-GM sources would be prohibitively expensive.

Given that it is likely to be five to ten years before GM products with substantial consumer benefits are placed on the market, it is likely to be this long before GM products are reintroduced in the UK. It will be essential that traceability is assured with such products, so as to address consumer concerns about how they are produced. A further difficulty will be conveying to consumers the dietary and health benefits of such products in a way which is sufficient to offset the use of GM technology.

The report concludes that, depending on how consumers' opinions evolve, niche markets may develop for GM products for consumption, but not necessarily for growing in the UK.

Scenario 3: GM products become mainstream markets

This scenario is probably a decade, if not more, away. For this to occur, there will need to be conclusive evidence that GM products are safe to eat without adverse effects on the environment.

Scenario 4: complete market acceptance of GM technology

For this scenario to be realised, GM crops would need to be grown without issue and consumers would have to view them as natural. There would be no pressure groups or need to label products. It is unlikely that this scenario will be seen for 20 to 40 years, and there are no guarantees that GM products will ever be accepted completely by the UK public.

Conclusions

The report notes that the BSE crisis in the UK had a very detrimental effect on consumer trust in food regulation and in the use of a scientific basis alone for controlling new situations. It is recognised that it will take considerable time for the climate of public opinion to change.

The current situation, in which GM products are accepted in some parts of the world but not in others, is very undesirable and unsustainable in the long run. A system for global agreements is required as is continued development of a collective understanding of the issue. Without this progress, international trade may be harmed dramatically. To achieve this, industry will have to engage with a full set of stakeholders, including the scientific research community and consumer groups.