Robert Schubert is the editor of CropChoice
Corporate agribusiness and their closely aligned U.S. commodity groups supported the Central American Free Trade Agreement because, according to recent public statements, it will lock in markets for U.S. corn that agribusiness processes and exports. Perhaps those commodity and trade groups should devote more attention to a prime cash-paying market—the European Union—that's been all but lost because of the insistence of some of those very same commodity groups, along with the U.S. government and biotechnology companies, that blindly insist that the United States push genetically engineered commodity crops, including corn, onto to world processors and consumers whether they want them or not.
In the 1994-95 marketing year, U.S. farmers and agribusiness supplied 3.15 million of the 3.83 million metric tons of corn that were imported into the European Union. That amounted to 82 percent of the imports, according to the latest USDA statistics analyzed and interpreted by Dan McGuire, CEO of the American Corn Growers Foundation. That was, of course, prior to the introduction and planting of GMO corn varieties here in the United States. (See link to his [table below] and a link to the Excel spreadsheet.)
In large part because of biotechnology, the share of U.S. corn, as part of total European corn imports, dropped to ZERO out of 4.5 million metric tons of corn estimated to be imported into the EU this year. That, of course equals ZERO percent. Without the GMO factor, McGuire estimated that in the 2003-2004 marketing year, U.S. corn would account for some 3.7 million out of that 4.5 million metric tons, or right in step with the estimated 83 percent of world corn trade that USDA economists projected the U.S. would have by now when they did their baseline projections in February 1997. That followed passage of the infamous "Freedom to Farm" 1996 farm law. Given the total cumulative quantity of corn that the EU has imported since the 1997-1998 marketing year, the data show that the U.S. has forgone from 500 to 700 million bushels of corn exports to that market because of transgenic crops. The negative trade relationships that results from U.S. officials telling the world what to eat certainly hasn't helped keep U.S. customers either. With the 2003 drought and reduced grain production around the world, corn ending stocks are seriously reduced and corn prices have been averaging over $2.50 per bushels in the country. However, had GMOs not caused the loss of the EU corn market over the past seven years and built up price-tempering corn inventory here in the U.S., farmers could be getting over $3.50 per bushel for their corn this year given historic price-to- ending-corn-stock relationships. That lost $1 per bushel, because of the GMO issue, would have added $10 billion to the value of the 2003 U.S. corn crop at the grower-farm level, and could have been a welcome economic infusion for farmers and rural America.
That should give all the promote-biotech-at-any-cost commodity groups something to chew on at their corporate agribusiness-sponsored Commodity Classic this week in Las Vegas.
European Union Corn Imports From The World and The U.S. 1994-2003-GMO Lost Exports
ACTUAL (Source-USDA) USDA February 1997 Baseline Projections Updated Mkt Yr & Total Corn Imports US Share EU Corn Imports and U.S. Share Projected with Feb04 Oct-Sept Imports From US % U.S.D.A. What US Using Using USDA EU 000 MT 000 MT Proj. % Share MMT Feb-04 USDA '97 Imports 1994-95 3831 3151 82% Total EU of World Should've USDA US % of What US 1995-96 4486 2390 53% Mkt. Yr. Imports Corn Trade Been EU Imports World Trade Share . 1996-97 2421 1710 71% 1996-97 2300 80% 1828.5 80% 1828.5 1997-98 2055 207 10% 1997-98 2800 82% 2284.8 82% 2284.8 1998-99 2716 201 7% 1998-99 2300 85% 1945.8 85% 1945.8 1999-2000 2296 106 5% 1999-2000 2400 85% 2049.6 85% 2049.6 2000-01 2857 40 1% 2000-01 2300 85% 1957.3 85% 1957.3 2001-02 2906 55 2% 2001-02 2300 84% 1936.6 2900 84% 2436 2002-03* 3800 37 1% 2002-03 2300 83% 1913.6 3800 83% 3154 2003-04* 4500 0 0% 2003-04 2300 83% 1904.4 4500 83% 3735 Actual U.S. Corn What U.S. Corn Exports To US Corn Export to Exports To EU.. EU should have been 000 MT EU Should Be 000 MT 1996-97-03-04 2,356 (1997 baseline)** 15820.6** (Feb'04)** 19391 MT** Actual Cumulative 92.8 MB Forgone-GMO Lost Cumulative Exports 623 MB Forgone Cum Exports 764 MB MT Metric Tons MB = million bushels *Note: This section is using the latest USDA Feb. 2004 WASDE Report For Corn Imports By the European Union **Note: Using USDA 1997 Baseline EU Total Corn Imports in 000 MT and Projected U.S. Market Share of World Corn Trade Plus Updating MY 2001/02, MY 2002/03 and MY 2003/04 EU Corn Imports and the percent that USDA says will be U.S."
SUMMARY: I expect it is reasonable to assume that the U.S. either lost 623 million bushels of corn exports cumulatively to the European Union because of GMO corn varieties being introduced or perhaps the larger number of 764 million bushels since MY 1996-97, if one uses the more recent EU corn import estimates provided by USDA. Regardless, it is clear" that the U.S. has gone from having 82% of EU corn import business down to 0% based on USDA's data and even if one assumed that the U.S. lost perhaps 500 million bushels cumulatively during the period, the negative impact" on price is tremendous.
Compiled by Dan McGuire, CEO & Director Farmer Choice-Customer First,
American Corn Growers Foundation - February 27, 2004
source of graph: http://www.cropchoice.com/EU-US%20Lost%20Corn%20exports.xls
8mar04
page source: http://www.cropchoice.com/leadstry.asp?recid=2430 8mar04
CropChoice is an alternative news and information source for American farmers and consumers about genetically modified crops, corporate agribusiness concentration, farm and trade policy, sustainable agriculture, wind farming and alternative energy, and rural economic and social issues. CropChoice has news that big companies may not want farmers to hear. The CropChoice news service provides balance. It complements other news sources and helps American producers make the best planting and management decisions. Consumers are better informed about the food they're buying, how it was produced and processed, and its source.
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