Flaw in U.S./Canada Energy Plan 

Martin Mittelstaedt / Toronto Globe & Mail 17sep01

Any continental-energy deal with the United States should be linked to reaching an agreement with Canada on reducing North American greenhouse-gas emissions, says former foreign affairs minister Lloyd Axworthy.

Mr. Axworthy made the recommendation to press the United States on global warming in a report commissioned by the Manitoba government to be released today by Premier Gary Doer.

The report was prepared for a federal-provincial meeting on climate change to be held in Winnipeg this month. It says energy discussions must focus on more than the ways Canada and the United States can increase trade in oil, gas and electricity.

Reaching a global-warming deal with the United States is important to Canada because energy production for export boosts domestic greenhouse-gas emissions through the extra energy used to extract oil from such sources as the tar sands.

Supplying more energy to the United States will seriously complicate Canada's pledge to cut greenhouse-gas emissions, highlighting the need for co-ordinated North American action on global warming, according to Mr. Axworthy.

These measures could include boosting energy conservation and spurring the development of renewable, non-polluting energy sources, such as wind power, and the creation of a North American market in the trading of carbon-emission credits.

Although U.S. President George W. Bush said the United States won't ratify the Kyoto agreement calling on industrialized countries to curb greenhouse-gas emissions, that country has said it plans unspecified actions to reduce pollutants responsible for global warming.

Mr. Axworthy said a Canadian-U.S. deal could present a way for the United States to fulfill this commitment.

The report warns that Manitoba would be among the areas of the world most affected by global warming because of its mid-continental, northerly location.

Models used by scientists to predict the effects of climate change show the most extreme temperature rises at northern latitudes.

Most of these consequences will be negative, such as hotter summers, more severe storms and droughts, fewer trees in the south and melting permafrost in the north.

In Hudson Bay, an extension of the ice-free season could threaten seals and polar bears. Rising sea levels could inundate coastal areas.

"Manitoba will experience earlier and more severe climate change than many other parts of the world," the report says in predicting average temperature increases of 4 to 6 degrees Celsius.

Not all the impacts will be negative.

More frost-free days are predicted, creating a longer growing season, which would enable the cultivation of a wider variety of crops. Warmer temperatures could lead to an expansion of agriculture in more northerly areas, although the lack of good soil would be limiting.

A reduction in sea ice could have benefits by boosting use of the port of Churchill to ship materials from the Prairies.

Concerns about climate change likely will increase the demand for relatively clean hydro-electric power, an advantage for Manitoba because of its large hydro potential.

"The global economy of the future will be increasingly based on the development of clean and renewable energy, and Manitoba is well positioned to benefit from this trend," the report says.