Kuwait's Biggest Oil Field Starts to Run Out of Oil
AME Info FZ LLC (United Arab Emirates) 12nov2005
[Bloomberg article below]
Kuwait — It was an incredible revelation last week that the second largest oil field in the world is exhausted and past its peak output. Yet that is what the Kuwait Oil Company revealed about its Burgan field.
The peak output of the Burgan oil field will now be around 1.7 million barrels per day, and not the two million barrels per day forecast for the rest of the field's 30 to 40 years of life, Chairman Farouk Al Zanki told Bloomberg [article below].
He said that engineers had tried to maintain 1.9 million barrels per day but that 1.7 million is the optimum rate. Kuwait will now spend some $3 million a year for the next year to boost output and exports from other fields.
However, it is surely a landmark moment when the world's second largest oil field begins to run dry. For Burgan has been pumping oil for almost 60 years and accounts for more than half of Kuwait's proven oil reserves. This is also not what forecasters are currently assuming.
Forecasts wrong Last week the International Energy Agency's report said output from the Greater Burgan area will be 1.64 million barrels a day in 2020 and 1.53 million barrels per day in 2030. Is this now a realistic scenario?
The news about the Burgan oil field also lends credence to the controversial opinions of investment banker and geologist Matthew Simmons. His book 'Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy' claims that the ageing Saudi oil filed also face serious production falls.
The implications for the global economy are indeed serious. If the world oil supply begins to run dry then the upward pressure on oil prices will be inexorable. For the oil producers this will come as a compensation for declining output, and cushion them against an economic collapse.
However, the oil consumers then face a major energy crisis. Industrialized economies are still far too dependent on oil. And the pricing mechanism of declining oil reserves will press them into further diversification of energy supplies, particularly nuclear, wind and solar power.
Geological facts All this was foreshadowed in the energy crisis of the late 1970s when a serious inflection in oil supply by the year 2000 was clearly forecast. How ironic that those earlier forecasts now look correct, while more modern and recent forecasts begin to look over optimistic and out-of-date with geological reality.
Nobody can change the geology, and forces of nature that laid down reserves of oil and gas over millions and millions of years. Could it be that we have been blinded by technological advances into thinking that there is some way to beat nature?
The natural world has an uncanny ability to hit back at the arrogance of man, and perhaps a reassessment of reality at this point is called for, rather than a reliance on oil statistics that may owe more to political maneuvering than geological facts.
source: http://www.ameinfo.com/71519.html 13nov2005
Kuwait's Burgan Oil Field, World's 2nd Largest, Is `Exhausted'
JAMES CORDAHI & ANDY CRITCHLOW / Bloomberg 10nov2005
Nov. 9 New York — Kuwaiti oil production from the world's second-largest field is "exhausted" and falling after almost six decades of pumping, forcing the government to increase spending on new deposits, the chairman of the state oil company said.
The plateau in output from the Burgan field will be about 1.7 million barrels a day, rather than as much as the 2 million a day that engineers had forecast could be maintained for the rest of the field's 30 to 40 years of life, said Farouk al-Zanki, chairman of state-owned Kuwait Oil Co. Kuwait plans to spend about $3 billion annually for the next three years to expand output and exports, three times the recent average.
To boost oil supplies, "Burgan by itself won't be enough because we've exhausted that, with its production capability now much lower than what it used to be," al-Zanki said during an interview in his office in Ahmadi, 20 kilometers south of Kuwait City. "We tried 2 million barrels a day, we tried 1.9 million, but 1.7 million is the optimum rate for the facilities and for economics."
Persian Gulf oil producers, which supply about a fifth of world demand, are rushing to find new reserves and build more pipelines and export terminals to compensate for declining output from older reservoirs. Any delay in replacing supplies may push oil prices higher and slow economic growth, the International Energy Agency said in a report this week.
To be sure, the plateau in supply if achieved would be higher than a projection from the IEA. This week the Paris-based group said output from the Greater Burgan area will increase from 1.35 million barrels a day in 2004 to 1.64 million a day in 2020, before falling to 1.53 million a day in 2030. The field now pumps between 1.3 million and 1.7 million barrels a day, al-Zanki said.
The debate over the sustainability of Middle East oil supplies has gained pace this year, after investment banker Matthew Simmons published "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy." In the book, he asserted the practice of injecting water into Saudi fields may lead to rapid production declines. Saudi officials rejected the charge. Brought into production in 1948, Burgan accounts for more than half of Kuwait's 96.5 billion barrels of oil reserves, or 55 billion barrels. Only Saudi Arabia's Ghawar oilfield, about 500 kilometers (313 miles) to the south, is bigger.
Benchmark New York oil futures have tripled in price during the last four years to a record $70.85 on Aug. 30 because countries such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia haven't invested enough in expanding production capacity to keep pace with faster-than- expected demand from countries such as China, India and the U.S. Kuwait last month pumped 2.5 million barrels a day, equivalent to 3 percent of global demand, according to Bloomberg data. That's down from a peak of almost 3 million barrels a day in 1972, according the Arab Oil & Gas directory.
"Kuwait's oil industry requires significant investment and needs international oil companies to help kick-start production capacity increases," Colin Lothian, senior Middle East energy analyst at Wood MacKenzie Ltd., an Edinburgh-based oil industry consultant, said in a telephone interview.
Burgan on its own had enough reserves to support 2 million or 3 million barrels of daily output, but those have already been produced, al-Zanki said in the interview two days ago. The reserves are declining and need to supplemented with other reservoirs, he said.
The family-ruled emirate plans to increase production capacity by about 18 percent to 3 million barrels a day by the end of the decade from about 2.55 million now, and to at least 4 million by 2020.
Oil consumers will be more reliant on Middle Eastern supplies in coming years and vulnerable to higher prices and slower economic growth should investments be delayed, the IEA, an adviser to 26 consuming nations, said in an annual outlook released on Nov. 7.
Petrofac Ltd. and rivals SK Engineering & Construction Co. won two contracts worth in more than $1.6 billion this year to upgrade and refurbish 20 plants that separate natural gas from oil ready for export in northwestern Kuwait. That works is in preparation to allow international oil companies to develop four oil fields near the border with Iraq.
"You need to develop more reserves in order to support the future target," said al-Zanki, who was appointed Kuwait Oil's chairman last year. Kuwait Oil is the country's state-owned monopoly oil and gas producer.
In a 10-year-old plan known as Project Kuwait, the emirate may invite companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc to invest about $8.5 billion to almost double output at the emirate's northern fields to 900,000 barrels a day by 2025. The project would be the first time since the 1970s that foreign companies operate Kuwaiti oilfields.