A respected oil-forecasting group predicted that the energy industry may be unable to produce enough oil to meet projected demand by the end of the next decade, in a study that lends support to a small chorus of analysts who warn that a peak in petroleum output is looming in the years ahead, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.
In a presentation yesterday, analysts from Washington-based PFC Energy warned that the world won't be able to produce more than 100 million barrels of oil a day, only some 20% more than current output of about 82 million barrels a day, and well below demand projections for the end of the next decade.
"Even production of 100 million barrels a day can only be sustained for a few years," said Roger Diwan, a PFC analyst. "Every year since the 1970s, we have been consuming much more oil than we have been discovering."
The world's energy appetite has become a hot issue this year as prices have soared on the back of growing demand in China and a series of supply outages, notably in war-torn Iraq . A small number of oil analysts have been predicting a peak in oil production, though they remain in the minority, with most oil companies insisting the industry will be able to meet future demand. Predictions of a peak in oil output often spike during times of oil prices -- most notably during the oil shocks of the 1970s -- but have so far been proved wrong, as exploration and production technology have enabled oil companies to keep the world sated.
-- Bhushan Bahree, staff reporter of The Wall Street Journal, contributed to this article.
source: http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/09/news/economy/oil_demand.dj/index.htm 9sep04
Also see:
Demand for Oil Could One Day Outstrip Supply - Wall Street Journal 9sep04
Energy Dependence on Mid-East, Russia to Grow, Says Study - IIS 9sep04
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